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On December 18, Dune: Part Three, the latest installment in Denis Villeneuve’s multi-billion-dollar take on Frank Herbert’s classic sci-fi book series, arrives in theaters. Also on December 18, Avengers: Doomsday, the latest installment in the Russo Bros.’ multi-billion-dollar take on the Marvel comic books, hits theaters.

For fans of the business of movies, the face-off between two giant franchises is going to be epic. But new data suggests one of the mega-franchises might have an advantage in this particular theatrical Ragnarok in terms of maximizing its box-office potential.

It’s the kind of pile-up at the box office that doesn’t happen very often these days. Studios are releasing fewer films than ever, giving more options for a film to find an opening weekend, and thus an audience substantial enough to pay for outsized production and marketing costs. The studios choose launch dates for their big franchises years ahead of time, trying to scare off competition and lock in the biggest possible attendance.

It’s a fascinating cross between games of chess and chicken, further complicated in recent years by the pandemic lockdown and then 2023’s twin strikes of Hollywood writers and actors. Both interruptions delayed most of an entire year’s schedule, piling up potential big films seeking attractive release weekends ever since.

Nowhere is that more obvious than this coming holiday season, where two of the biggest film franchises of recent years chose the week before Christmas, one of the calendar’s biggest movie-watching periods.

Cinelytics, which consults with several studios on film marketing and distribution, suggests the latest Dune installment (distributed by its client, Warner Bros. Studios) may get a far bigger box office boost from its reliance on IMAX. It was intentionally shot in that large format, optimizing for its visually overwhelming presentation, and will have three weeks of exclusive IMAX access.

Jostling for control of such premium screens, which can charge a notably higher ticket price, also has been a crucial studio strategy maximizing their biggest franchises, so much so that Cinelytics called IMAX a “box office multiplier" in a recent report. That’s especially so for films shot natively with the large-format cameras custom-made for IMAX’s giant screens, compared to those that have been converted to run on the five-story-high screens.

Natively shot films include recent non-superhero films such as Oppenheimer, Sinners, and F1: The Movie, which Cinelytics calculates saw their box-office boosted an average 12% by their IMAX offerings, the kind of impact that makes a studio distributor sit up and take notice.

“For Dune: Part Three, IMAX is central to the theatrical experience,” Cinelytics writes. “The model assumes a 20% IMAX share, significantly above the historical Native IMAX average of 11.8%, reflecting the franchise’s established premium-format demand. With IMAX included, projections reach ($281.3 million) domestic and ($447 million) international” box office gross.

The “true” IMAX contribution is closer to 12.9%, slightly below the 13.2% boost that Dune: Part Two got from the premium format.

The IMAX impact is less substantial for superhero films in general, because they bring their own built-in audience and tend to appeal to a broader audience, as has happened with many of the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s 38 films over the past couple of decades.

For Avengers: Doomsday, IMAX is less core to its anticipated success, more “premium upsell” than basic driver of attendance, according to Cinelytics. That means IMAX box office will likely only contribute a superhero-standard 7% share of box office.

That still translates to a projected $618.5 million domestic and $819.6 million international, well in excess of Dune Part 3’s take. But without access to IMAX screens for the crucial first three weeks of release, Cinelytics says that means the film will get only a 3.5% “true” IMAX boost.

It’s the difference between “positioning as a broad-demand event rather than a format-driven spectacle,” Cinelytics wrote, with each studio’s marketing shaped accordingly.

Trailers and ads for Dune: Part 3 are already running heavily, no doubt to take advantage of star Timothée Chalamet’s recent Oscar-nominated turn in Marty Supreme and Zendaya’s long-awaited return this week as Rue in HBO Max’s third season of Euphoria.

The real point of the study, however, is that relying on IMAX is not a guarantee of a film’s overall success in the dicey, post-lockdown era of theatrical releasing, Cinelytics said.

“IMAX is not a one-size-fits-all multiplier,” according to the report. “Its impact depends on how a film is produced, marketed, and released. Understanding these dynamics is essential for accurate forecasting, release-strategy optimization, and maximizing premium-format value.”

There’s a lot on the line for both films.

The first two Russo Bros. takes on the Avengers, 2018’s Infinity Wars and 2019’s End Game, collectively grossed a combined $4.84 billion worldwide. The Russos also produced and directed two Captain America movies, 2014’s The Winter Soldier ($714 million worldwide gross) and 2016’s Civil War ($1.155 billion gross).

But after the Russos moved on to other projects, and COVID largely emptied theaters in 2020, the Marvel Universe hit a post-lockdown lull that saw a string of expensive, underperforming films and Disney+ TV series. Cue the Russo Bros.’ re-enlistment, gathering all Avengers for two more films this December and next.

The third Dune has also been a huge success for Warner Bros. Studios after an epic 2025 that saw three of its films – One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Weapons – win a total of 11 Oscars, including Best Picture. Dune: Part Two won Oscars for sound and visual effects, along with three other nominations, in 2025.

Now the studio’s parent company, Warner Bros. Discovery, is on the cusp of being acquired by Paramount Skydance for $110 billion, with plans by the new owners to release as many as 30 films a year, a gigantic ramp-up in production designed to help drive downstream viewership on its combined streaming, broadcast and cable holdings.

Dune’s first two parts combined for $1.125 billion in box office, extremely good returns for a post-COVID franchise, where overall box office returns have lagged pre-lockdown returns by 20% or more each year since 2020.

The PSKY takeover isn’t expected to close by the time Dune: Part Three arrives in theaters, but continuing to outperform will be more important than ever for a combined company looking at massive debt, widespread layoffs, structural “rationalization” and other disruptions in the coming months.