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Forbes - Policy

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Fewer Returns, Bigger Refunds: What IRS Data Says About The 2026 Tax Season
Kelly Philli · 2026-04-18 · via Forbes - Policy

The number of tax returns filed in 2026 has lagged behind 2025 numbers.

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Now that April 15 is in our rearview mirror, it’s a wrap on the regular tax season—but the IRS is still processing returns and sorting through data. The IRS has released updated filing season data through April 10, 2026, and the numbers aren’t remarkably different from earlier in the tax filing season.

As it has for most of the year, filing activity remains slightly behind last year. The IRS reports receiving 114.3 million individual income tax returns so far, down from 117.6 million at the same point in 2025—a 2.8% decline. Processing numbers track closely with that trend, with 113.6 million returns processed compared to 116.3 million last year, a 2.3% drop.

The IRS reports that, days before the filing season ended for the 2025 tax year, fewer returns were received and processed than in the year before.

Kelly Phillips Erb

Earlier data had already hinted that taxpayers might be taking a bit longer to file this year, and the cumulative totals suggest that pattern has held. Whether it's timing, more complicated returns, or simple procrastination, the result is that fewer returns have made it into the system so far.

As in prior years, early filers tend to have simpler returns, while those with business income, investments, or itemized deductions often wait until closer to the deadline. If that dynamic holds, the final days of the season could still bring a surge of last-minute filings, but we won’t know that until next week (April 24, 2026).

How Taxpayers Are Filing

Electronic filing continues to dominate. Of the 114.3 million returns received, 112.2 million were filed electronically—a 1.5% dip from last year, but yet still the overwhelmingly preferred method.

Breaking that down further, filings from tax professionals totaled 61.4 million, down 2.3%, while self-prepared returns totaled 50.8 million, a more modest decline of 0.6%.

According to IRS data, more e-filed returns were filed by tax professionals than were self-prepared during the 2026 tax filing season to date.

Kelly Phillips Erb

Earlier in the season, self-prepared returns showed a small increase, suggesting some taxpayers were more willing to go the DIY route. By April, however, that trend had evened out, leaving both categories slightly lower year over year.

Tax software remains the primary tool for self-preparers, while the IRS Free File program continues to be an option for those who qualify. As always, taxpayers need to pay attention to the fine print—particularly income limits and whether state returns are included.

One notable change this season is the absence of the IRS Direct File program. The agency shut down the initiative in 2026 after criticism from lawmakers and continued pressure from private-sector tax preparation companies. That leaves taxpayers relying on a mix of commercial software, tax professionals, and existing IRS partnerships to file their returns.

IRS.gov Traffic Surges

If filing activity is slightly down, taxpayer curiosity is anything but.

Traffic to IRS.gov has surged this season. The agency reports 467.1 million visits so far, up from 296.5 million at the same point last year—a 57.6% increase.

Visits to IRS.gov still remain higher than last year.

Kelly Phillips Erb

That spike likely reflects taxpayers searching for clarity. Between changes tied to recent legislation, questions about refund timing, and general uncertainty, more taxpayers appear to be turning directly to the IRS for answers.

For refund updates, the IRS continues to steer taxpayers to its “Where’s My Refund?” tool. The tracker provides basic status updates, including confirmation that a return has been received, whether a refund has been approved, and when it is expected to be issued. The system updates once per day, typically overnight, which means checking repeatedly during the day won’t give you any new information.

Refunds Are Up—In Size and Volume

While fewer returns have been filed overall, refunds have increased.

The IRS has issued 78.1 million refunds so far this season, up 4.3% from 74.9 million at the same point last year. The total dollars refunded have increased even more, rising 16.0% to $265.2 billion. That combination has pushed the average refund to $3,397, an 11.2% increase over last year’s $3,055.

Tax refunds are higher in 2026 than they were last year so far this tax filing season.

Kelly Phillips Erb

Direct deposit refunds show an even stronger trend. The IRS has issued 78.5 million direct deposit refunds, up 10.3%, with a total value of $266.1 billion—an increase of 19.6%. The average direct deposit refund now stands at $3,390, up 8.4%.

What’s Driving Bigger Refunds?

Much of the increase in refund amounts can be traced to changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which took effect in mid-2025 but applied retroactively to the entire tax year. The legislation expanded several key tax benefits, including a higher standard deduction, enhanced child tax credits, and new deductions tied to overtime and tip income. It also introduced additional provisions affecting seniors, car loan interest, and other areas.

Because withholding tables were not updated to reflect those changes during the year, many taxpayers had more tax withheld from their paychecks than necessary. When they filed their returns, that excess withholding translated into larger refunds.

The increase has not reached the levels some policymakers had suggested. Early projections had suggested average refunds could rise by $1,000 or more. Instead, current data point to a more moderate increase, closer to a few hundred dollars for most taxpayers. That puts the actual results comfortably within the range estimated by economists earlier in the year, but well below the more ambitious public claims.

A Filing Season Nearing the Finish Line

For taxpayers still working on their returns (including those who are filing on extension), the message is the same as always: file as soon as possible, double-check the details, and, if you’re expecting a refund, choose direct deposit for the fastest turnaround.

ForbesForbes Last Minute Tax Guide: How To Navigate The Changes On Your 2025 ReturnBy Kelly Phillips Erb