President Trump has threatened that all passenger vehicle imports from the European Union will face a 25% tariff starting next week.

If the president follows through, it’s bad news for car buyers, particularly high-end vebicles, at a time when the average price of a U.S. vehicle passed $50,000 last year. It’s bad news for the U.S. seaports dependent on the fees assessed on the shipments, particularly in Georgia, California, Florida and Maryland. It’s bad news for the E.U. manufacturers and their workers, including not only in Germany but particularly in Slovakia.

And it’s bad news for a president trying to lower inflation in the United States ahead of midterm elections while fighting a war in Iran that is increasing gas prices and facing a second rejection on the legality of his tariffs-dependent trade war with the world.

In addition, the timing is not great. Overall U.S. motor vehicle imports fell 16.46% last year and are down 23.11% this year.

The threatened tariff rate would jump from the current 15%, part of an agreement Trump struck last year with the European Union, to 25% – and comes on the heels of remarks from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz that the United States was being “humiliated by Iran” and had no stragegy. Trump also announced he was pulling 5,000 U.S. troops out of Germany. The reason Trump gave was that the E.U. was not moving quickly enough to reduce its tariffs on U.S. exports, which the European Union disputes.

If the tariffs come to pass, they will primarily affect luxury brands like Porsche, BMW, Mercedes, Lamborgini, Ferrari and Bentley. Many European vehicles or models that are less expensive are manufactured primarily in the U.S. South, places like Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina.

European Union passenger vehicles accounted for 18.09% of all U.S. imports through the first three months of 2026, according to my analysis of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data. In 2025, that percentage was 19.21%. This not not include cars from the United Kingdom, which is not part of the E.U.

Asia accounted for 42.67% of all U.S. imports in the first quarter while USMCA partners Canada and Mexico accounted for 34.86%. Asia increased its percentage over 2025, which the total was 38.20%, slightly less than the total from Canada and Mexico, which was 38.29%.

For 16 of the last 17 years, the value of U.S. passenger vehicle imports from Canada and Mexico was greater than the value of those imported from Asia. The exception was 2024, the only year that European passenger vehicle imports were greater than those from Mexico and Canada since 2009.

Imports from the European Union are dominated by those from Germany, though not like they once were. It accounted for 54.86% of the total through March of this year, followed by 13.87% from Slovakia and 13.77% from Sweden. That total – 82.50% – is slightly more than the 81.75% credited to Germany alone in 2013. The percentages for E.U. imports from Slovakia and Sweden have quadrupled in that time.

Starting with U.S. imports from Germany, the ports most affected are the nation’s No. 1 seaport for motor vehicles, the Port of Baltimore (25.81%), followed by the Port of Brunswick in Georgia (16.54%), the Port of Newark (8.46%) and the Port of GHueneme in California (8.40%).

With U.S. imports from Slovakia, the Port of Baltimore accounted for 23.50% through March, followed by the Port of Jacksonville in Florida (14.16%), the Port of Brunswick (12.74%) and the Port of Hueneme (11.41%).

In the case of Sweden, 49.62% come through the Port of Newark followed by the Port of Brunswick (20.94%) and the Port of Hueneme (15.39%).

It is also relevent to consider how important passenger vehicle imports are to U.S. seaports generally.

While the Port of Baltimore was top-ranked for U.S. motor vehicle imports in the first quarter of the year, and while the category accounted for a sizeable 31.66% of all imports by value, the percentage was 76.31% at the Port of Brunswick, 79.15% at the Port of Hueneme, and 49.72% at the Port of Jacksonville.

These ports pay a great deal attention to tonnage rather than value because that’s how they set rates. A large seaport, the Port of Baltimore’s percentage of motor vehicles by tonnage was just 7.24% – a lower dependency – while the Port of Brunswick was at 53.60%, the Port of Hueneme at 29.65% and the Port of Jacksonville at 12.34%.

Looking at the ports themselves to see how exposed they are to E.U. imports, just under 40% of the Port of Baltimore’s motor vehicle imports came from the there in the first quarter of the year, with Germany alone accounting for 25.56%. Remembering that the E.U. accounted for 18.09% of all U.S. motor vehicle imports this year, the Port of Baltimore has greater than average exposure.

The Port of Brunswick is in a similar situation, with 31.81% of the value of its imports coming from the European Union.

The Port of Newark is even more dependent on the European Union, at 46.06%.

These three seaports are, of course, East Coast seaports.

AtBut even the West Coast seaport of the Port of Hueneme comes in at just under 29% of its passenger vehicle imports by value coming from the E.U. in the first quarter.