To say that the odds and picks — which is to say, the many pundits — are in a tangle about who’s really gonna take his lion’s share of the $5-million on the barrelhead for the 152nd Kentucky Derby victor at Churchill later this afternoon is a rank understatement. And that’s a good thing: the always-massive Derby field is delightfully tight in talent this year, which is to say, the talented horses are well and truly bunched, with Renegade scrambling his fine shoes to hold on to the top-favorite status in the track’s odds.

Specifically, Mark Glatt’s So Happy, is down from 15-1 to 6-1 in a (sort of) three-way tie for second favorite as of last night’s track odds at Churchill. So Happy got a ton of respect from the win pool as the windows opened yesterday for the Oaks and attendant races, and is largely retaining that respect now. So Happy’s nearest competitors’ names, in other words, the Derby’s momentary third-favorites in the live odds — Commandment, at the moment at 7-1, and Further Ado, at the moment 7-1 — tell us that tale. Renegade is being hunted down by more than just those top three next-favorites, however, and pretty much every horse who matters in this race, Chief Wallabee very much included, has a fair chance at him.

Note: The Puma, very much a second-to-third favorite runner in that battle, down to 8-1 on Friday, was scratched on Saturday morning in one of the last-minute medical checks, as a result of a skin infection causing some edema in a leg. Citing the Fates’ impeccable timing — his scratch occurred less than 12 hours before post time at 6:57 p.m. — trainer Gustavo Delgado was philosophical about the event. The trainer said, “It's incredibly disappointing, but the swelling should go down within a day or two.”

Sadly, Right To Party, the outlying runner with the name we very much hope was derived from 1986 the Beastie Boys hit “(You Gotta) Fight For Your Right (To Party),” was scratched on Friday. His scratch brought The Puma’s Saturday scratch to a grand total of four, one on each day of the last four before post time. Notably, his scratch made it possible for high-ranking favorite Commandment to move into the five hole. Which, apparently, is supposed to be “coveted” as having produced winners.

There will be no alternate drawn in at this late hour. The 2026 Derby will go into the books with nineteen contenders running.

But before we dive into what the co-second favorites or anybody else need to do to take Renegade down, here, a refresher on the field and the live track odds. The announced post time for the race is 6:57 p.m ET

Note: revised post positions appear here in parentheses ONLY for those eight outside horses whose stalls and saddle cloths do not correspond. For the twelve inside horses whose saddle cloths and post positions still correspond, no change is made. Live Churchill odds are in parentheses after the morning line. We’ll be updating those throughout the afternoon.

Saddle Cloth, (Revised Post Position), Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Morning Line (Live Odds)

1) Renegade, Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher, 4-1 (5-1)

2) Albus, Manny Franco, Riley Mott, 30-1 (50-1)

3) Intrepido, Hector Berrios, Jeff Mullins, 50-1 (55-1)

4) Litmus Test, Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert, 30-1 (34-1)

SCRATCH Right To Party, Christopher Elliott, Kenny McPeek, 30-1 (26-1) SCRATCH

6) (5) Commandment, Luis Saez, Brad Cox, 6-1 (7-1)

7) (6) Danon Bourbon, Atsuya Nishimura, Manabu Ikezoe, 20-1 (14-1)

8) (7)So Happy, Mike Smith, Mark Glatt, 15-1 (6-1)

SCRATCH The Puma, Javier Castellano, Gustavo Delgado, 10-1 (8-1) SCRATCH

10) (8) Wonder Dean, Ryusei Sakai, Daisuke Takayanagi, 30-1 (20-1)

11) (9) Incredibolt, Jaime Torres, Riley Mott, 20-1 (27-1)

12) (10) Chief Wallabee, Junior Alvarado, William Mott, 8-1 (9-1)

SCRATCH Silent Tactic, Cristian Torres, Mark Casse, 20-1 SCRATCH

14) (11) Potente, Juan Hernandez, Bob Baffert, 20-1 (23-1)

15) (12) Emerging Market, Flavien Prat, Chad Brown, 15-1 (11-1)

16) (13) Pavlovian, Edwin Maldonado, Doug O'Neill, 30-1 (52-1)

17) (14) Six Speed, Brian Hernandez Jr., Bhupat Seemar, 50-1 (40-1)

18) (15) Further Ado, John Velasquez, Brad Cox, 6-1 (7-1)

19) (16) Golden Tempo, Jose Ortiz, Cherie DeVaux, 30-1 (36-1)

SCRATCH Fulleffort, Tyler Gaffalione, Brad Cox, 20-1 SCRATCH

21) (17) Great White, Alex Achard, John Ennis, 50-1 (29-1)

22) (18) Ocelli, Tyler Gaffalione, Whit Beckman, 50-1 (50-1)

23) (19) Robusta, Emisael Jaramillo, Doug O’Neill, 50-1 (50-1)

Source: Churchill Downs/TwinSpires, Time: 4:56 p.m. ET

Notably, a couple of the outliers just below the bunched crew of top favorites have come down considerably in price, the Japanese runner Danon Bourbon, Emerging Market, and surprisingly, the latest addition to the field, Great White, the spanking big gelding who still offers a fetching price for the longshot players at 29-1.

More significantly, although there is but a lone odds point separating Renegade from So Happy AND a lone point separating So Happy from Commandment and Further Ado, this narrow separation must be constantly monitored this afternoon. Said another way: Because So Happy’s rise in estimation (of implied probability to win) was far steeper and more durable than either Commandment’s or Further Ado’s “fall” to 7-1, it follows that the track chatter favoring So Happy is sturdier. Something — some detail inside — is holding that price where it is. That, in turn, must be factored in by the players who are including him in exotics.

Caveat: It’s early going yet. The separation between So Happy and his competitors on the lower rung will bear watching as the money really begins to flow this afternoon.

The live Churchill odds will be updated until shortly before post time at 6:57 p.m. ET.