Willy Adames has a matchup with a homer-prone starting pitcher tonight.
Getty Images
Sadly, neither of yesterday’s long-shot MLB best home run bets came to fruition. As a result, the season record for MLB’s best home bets sits at 3-8-1.
Homer bets are priced at enticing odds because they are inherently difficult to hit. Still, the odds for homer bets don’t necessitate gamblers to hit on many to generate a profit, as evidenced by the best home run bets turning a $600 profit so far this season for any readers who bet $100 on each suggested home run props at the odds listed in the articles.
Bouncing back today with the following two home run props can create some more wiggle room for an inevitable cold spell during the long grind of the MLB season. Thankfully, two home run bets stand out as exciting wagers due to their tasty odds.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+410) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Willy Adames has hit three home runs in 19 games and 79 plate appearances this year. All three of his homers in 2026 were against right-handed pitching, and they were also all on the road in 27 plate appearances under those conditions.
Adames will face a homer-prone right-handed pitcher at Nationals Park tonight. Among Friday’s probable starting pitchers, Zack Littell has allowed the most home runs per nine innings (3.00 HR/9) this season.
MORE FOR YOU
Little has also allowed 21 homers at 1.78 HR/9 to 436 right-handed batters since 2025. Washington’s bullpen has also had trouble keeping the ball in the yard. In fact, Nationals’ relievers have allowed the most home runs per nine innings (2.01 HR/9) in MLB this year.
Adames can find his home run stroke against the Nationals tonight. Among qualified hitters, Adames’ 24.7-degree launch angle is tied for the 15th-steepest mark. His fly-ball hunting approach can pay dividends with a homer in tonight’s favorable matchup for hitting home runs.
Teoscar Hernandez still has plus power.
Getty Images
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+438) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Teoscar Hernandez doesn’t boast a well-rounded hitting profile. Instead, he’s a classic, prototypical slugger, taking hacks and trading contact and high strikeout rates for homers.
The 33-year-old righty’s power is aging well. Hernandez’s 62 home runs in 1,261 plate appearances since 2024 are the 16th most in MLB during that period. Hernandez has also already muscled up for four homers in 16 games and 63 plate appearances in 2026.
The right-handed-hitting outfielder’s batted-ball data is rock-solid this season. Among 280 qualified batters in 2026, Hernandez is tied for 38th in barrels per plate appearances rate (9.5%), 38th in barrels per batted ball event rate (15.0%), tied for 132nd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (93.7 mph), tied for 77th in maximum exit velocity (110.7 mph) and tied for 50th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (40.0%).
Hernandez has the power to rip a home run against pitchers of all calibers in ballparks of all shapes and sizes. Having said that, he has a mouthwatering matchup and drool-inducing park factors to hit a home run tonight.
Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed 37 homers at 1.92 HR/9 in 33 career starts and 173.2 innings since joining MLB last year. He’s coughed up 16 homers at 1.78 HR/9 to 349 right-handed batters since last season.
Finally, among 29 ballparks with three years of data from 2024 through 2026, Coors Field has the 11th-highest park factor for homers (106). Hernandez’s +438 odds to hit a homer offered at DraftKings Sportsbook are dreamy when considering his power, his matchup, and the park factors at Coors Field, and make his home run prop one of today’s most compelling picks.
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理，仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。