Drake Baldwin has pristine batted-ball data.
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Hopefully, a few days off will be the elixir to turn around the recent MLB best home run bets drought. The season record for home run props is 3-14, with one no bet for a player who didn’t start.
Despite the lackluster record, gamblers and readers who bet $100 on each of the suggested best home run bets haven’t lost money. At the same time, they haven’t won money. It’s back to square one, and with a clean slate, tonight is an opportunity to snap a nine-pick losing streak and rebuild a profit for the season.
Two young left-handed batters have mouthwatering matchups to hit a home run. Both players also have compelling odds for their home run bets, making their home run props the best available home run wagers for Wednesday night.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Drake Baldwin has pristine batted-ball data. Among 277 qualified batters in 2026, Baldwin is tied for 15th in barrels per plate appearance rate (11.7%), 28th in barrels per batted-ball-event rate (16.3%), 17th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.6 mph), tied for 103rd in maximum exit velocity (110.2 mph) and tied for 25th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (42.5%). Baldwin’s maximum exit velocity is the only non-elite mark among his noted batted-ball data, and he doesn’t need to be among MLB’s best at hitting the ball the hardest on a single batted-ball event to be a high-end power hitter.
Baldwin’s top-shelf batted-ball data has translated to homers. Baldwin has hit six homers in 24 games and 111 plate appearances this year, and he’s hit 25 home runs in 148 games and 557 plate appearances in his career. The 25-year-old catcher has hit 19 of his career 25 homers against right-handed pitching, including four of his six home runs this year against righties.
Baldwin has a dreamy matchup to hit a home run tonight. Among 265 pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched this year, Zack Littell’s 3.32 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) is the second-highest mark. Washington’s relievers are also tied for the second-highest home runs allowed per nine innings at 1.68 HR/9 this season.
Littell’s homer problems aren’t a blip on the radar, either. He’s yielded 1.94 HR/9 and 21 home runs to 399 left-handed batters since last season. As a result, Baldwin has an excellent chance to hit a home run tonight, and his +490 odds offered at FanDuel Sportsbook are a bargain.
Jackson Merrill has a fantastic matchup and ideal hitting conditions to hit a home run tonight.
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Over 0.5 Home Runs (+390) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Jackson Merrill has hit only three home runs in 23 games and 97 plate appearances this year. However, all three of his homers are against right-handed pitching, and he faces a right-handed starting pitcher tonight.
Merrill’s batted-ball data is better than one might expect for a player with just three homers so far in 2026. Among 277 qualified batters in 2026, Merrill is tied for 39th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.3%), tied for 47th in barrels per batted-ball-event rate (13.4%), tied for 23rd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.2 mph) and tied for 171st in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (31.3%). Merrill has hit the ball plenty hard enough to reach the seats, but he hasn’t quite locked in on the launch-angle sweet spot.
Tonight is a get-right opportunity for Merrill. Among 115 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched this year, Tomoyuki Sugano’s 2.18 HR/9 allowed is the fourth-highest mark. The 36-year-old righty has allowed 22 home runs and 2.09 HR/9 to 404 left-handed batters since coming to MLB last season.
Merrill also has favorable park factors tonight. Coors Field is tied for the 10th-highest park factor for home runs (107) from 2024 through 2026. Finally, the weather forecast could help Merrill’s pull power for home runs, as the winds are projected to be 15 to 20 mph from left to right, but they may blow out to right field. Gamblers are getting a lot of bang for their buck at +390 odds for Merrill’s home run prop.
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