The Bucks Dragged Their Feet…

ESPN's Shams Charania kicked off the NBA preseason last year with an explosive report about Antetokounmpo's future in Milwaukee. He reported that Antetokounmpo met with general manager Jon Horst in Athens and "aired his concerns about whether this team could truly achieve championship contention." In addition, "he wanted to explore whether there would be an alternative path forward for both the team and the player."

The Bucks reportedly discussed a trade during the offseason with the New York Knicks, although negotiations didn't get far. The Knicks likely don't have any regrets about that now.

As the Bucks stumbled out to a below-.500 start, questions about Antetokounmpo’s future again began bubbling to the surface. Charania reported in early December that Antetokounmpo and his agent were having conversations with the Bucks about "whether his best fit is staying or a move elsewhere."

Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo wasn't shy about airing his frustration.

In late January, Charania reported that Antetokounmpo was "ready for a new home ahead of the Feb. 5 trade deadline." He added that several teams had "made aggressive offers," and the Bucks were "starting to listen."

However, they didn't wind up trading Antetokounmpo by the deadline, which led to how they got here.

In April, Charania reported that in the months leading up to the trade deadline, Antetokounmpo "declined to publicize a trade request, but he made it clear to all parties involved behind the scenes that he felt both sides needed to move on immediately, as the franchise was not in position to compete." Instead, the Bucks stood pat.

It's typically easier to swing a blockbuster trade during the offseason. Teams have expanded 20-man roster limits compared to only 15 during the regular season, and no teams are hard-capped at either apron once the league year resets on July 1.

Had a team bowled them over with an offer at the trade deadline, perhaps the Bucks would have more seriously considered moving Antetokounmpo. Instead, it seems like the Heat were the highest bidder with an offer built around Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and draft capital.

"Milwaukee contemplated moving forward with Miami on Feb. 4," Charania reported. "Ownership, however, believed the best move would be to hold on to Antetokounmpo and receive better offers in the summer."

Perhaps the Bucks were hoping for the Knicks to crash out in the playoffs and jump back into the Antetokounmpo market. Instead, they snapped their 53-year title drought and presumably aren't eyeing a major shakeup this offseason.

Other teams that suffered early exits might consider being more aggressive this summer. The Boston Celtics have been a rumored suitor with Jaylen Brown as the main piece going out. That may depend on their ability to find a third team that would give up draft capital and/or young prospects to send to Milwaukee.

While the Bucks were right to think they might have more suitors in the offseason, they couldn't have quite anticipated how the league would shift around them in the meantime.

…And The League Changed

As the Bucks dragged their feet on the Antetokounmpo situation, a number of other teams gave up on the season entirely. That drew the ire of NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, who rammed through a new draft-lottery format in response.

In 2019, the NBA flattened the lottery odds after the Philadelphia 76ers embarked on an intentional multi-year rebuild known as the "Process" in the mid-2010s. The worst teams still had the best odds of landing the No. 1 pick, but their odds weren’t as high as they had been before that.

The new lottery system is even more punitive to the worst teams. In fact, the teams with the three worst records have worse odds of landing the No. 1 pick than the teams with the fourth- through 10th-worst.

That's only the start of it.

Under the current system, the lottery determined only the top four draft slots. The team with the worst record was guaranteed to fall no lower than No. 5, the team with the second-worst record couldn't fall lower than No. 6, so on and so forth. (Prior to 2019, it was only the top three slots.)

Under the new system, all 16 picks will be decided by the lottery. So, teams with the three worst records have only a 28% chance of landing a top-five pick and a 61% chance at a top-10 pick. The other non-play-in-tournament teams have a 39% chance at a top-five pick and a 73% chance at a top-10 pick.

The end result of that? First-round picks will have far more variance in 2027, 2028 and 2029—the three years that this lottery system is guaranteed to be in effect—which could increase their value on the trade market. Jake Fischer of The Stein Line reported in late May that teams have been planning to make first-rounders in those three seasons "less available in trade talks than before."

He added that "according to some estimates in circulation," first-round picks across that span "might be seen as twice as valuable as they previously were."

The Bucks very well might still get a decent draft haul for Antetokounmpo, especially if they aren't getting a blue-chip prospect as well. According to ESPN's Ramona Shelburne, one team executive said the Bucks were asking for "all our draft picks and good young players" ahead of the trade deadline, although that executive described the Bucks as just "gauging the market."

Sources told Shelburne that the Golden State Warriors' offer included four unprotected first-round picks, but they "never seemed to gain much momentum on a deal." Instead, the Bucks seemed interested in "younger building blocks such as VJ Edgecombe of the Philadelphia 76ers and Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers."

Edgecombe should be fully off the table for Antetokounmpo, if only because the Greek Freak alone wouldn't transform the Sixers into a championship contender. The Cavs don't appear inclined to flip Mobley for Antetokounmpo, either.

It’s hard to imagine the Spurs would include Stephon Castle or Dylan Harper in an Antetokounmpo trade, although De’Aaron Fox could suddenly be available after a subpar performance in the NBA Finals (while fighting through a high ankle sprain, in his defense). The Celtics are seemingly willing to offer Brown, although it’s unclear how much else they’d be open to adding.

According to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, the Bucks "seem to not be in love with the Heat's offer(s) and continue to discuss trade packages with other teams." Keeping Giannis doesn't seem to be on the table if he's unwilling to sign the four-year, $270-plus million extension that they can offer him on Oct. 1.

"Giannis is going into the last year [of his contract]," Wes Edens, the team's controlling owner until April 2028, told Shelburne. "So one of two things will happen: Either he will be extended or he'll be traded.

"The likelihood you'll let him just kind of play out the last year, we can't afford that. It's not consistent with what's good for the organization. That's not a Giannis issue. That's any player that's in their last year."

Bucks co-owner Jimmy Haslam, who’s taking control of the organization from Edens in 2028, told reporters that "before the draft is a natural time" to trade Antetokounmpo.

“Because if Giannis does play somewhere else, we’ve got to have a lot of assets,” he added. "That's [general manager Jon Horst's] job to do. And if he's here, then you build the team differently."

It's best for all parties to part ways by Tuesday at the latest. The thing is, this situation was completely foreseeable last summer.

But while the Bucks dragged their feet, the league overhauled its draft lottery, which could drastically change the trade value of first-round picks for the next few years. Had the Bucks traded Antetokounmpo before that, they might have been able to get a more draft-pick-heavy package in return.

Regardless of where he ends up, it's worth watching how much draft compensation gets included. The days of giving up five first-round picks for a non-superstar like Mikal Bridges are long gone—even if it did pay off in a championship for the Knicks—but what's the right price for a star like Antetokounmpo under this new system?

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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