What is at stake for the Pacers offseason in the draft lottery?

It’s nearly a coin-flip chance that the Pacers keep or lose their first-round draft pick on Sunday, and the top four prospects in the draft are considered to be very strong. The Pacers could lose the pick, but they wouldn’t have had a chance to grab one of those top talents anyway if the pick falls to five or six.

That said, much of the team’s offseason planning will be determined on May 10. Not only will the blue and gold know if a strong draft pick is coming their way, they will also get important clarity on their financial future. Adding a top-four draft pick would be great for the Pacers, but any player selected in that range will carry a significant cap hit. That would take much of the Pacers spending power off the board in free agency.

Keeping the pick is still by far the best outcome for the Pacers. Buchanan laughed and said, “We’d like to have a top-four pick,” when asked what his team still needs back in February. But the Pacers offseason will look different if they don’t make a selection high in the 2026 draft. Instead, they might be able to add in free agency.

Currently, the team projects to have just under $200 million in total team salary this offseason. That number would climb higher if a draft pick is made thanks to the NBA’s rookie scale.

The rookie scale informs the value of contracts for players selected in the first round of any draft. It is pre-determined and rises (or falls) with the NBA’s salary cap. Any player chosen in the first round can sign for as little as 80% and as much as 120% of the rookie-scale value, which is based on what spot they were selected. Most players chosen at the top of the draft sign for 120% of their rookie-scale number.

That means if the Pacers keep their pick, they project to add at least $10.7 million in salary, final cap projections pending. Doing so would take their total team salary near or over the first apron, meaning their free agency period would be fairly quiet and straightforward.

If the Pacers don’t keep their pick, though, they may be able to add at least some veteran talent in free agency. While losing a top-four selection would be tough, other avenues would open up. “If [keeping the pick] doesn’t happen, there’s a contingency plan to build the team up too. We’re going to view it as a win-win situation… If it turns out we don’t get one of the four picks, then we’ve fulfilled a pretty significant part of what we owe the Clippers and we’ve gotten a center,” Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle said after his team’s final game of the season.

The center he’s referring to, of course, is Zubac. And the obligation he mentions is a 2031 first-round draft pick – Indiana will send that to the Clippers if they keep their top-four pick this year. Otherwise, the Pacers will hang on to that selection. There’s quite a bit at stake come lottery night.

And the Pacers offseason planning is one of those things. Carlisle spoke on 107.5 The Fan’s Morning Show last week to expand more on those spending avenues.

“We’ll hope for the best,” Carlisle said of the lottery before admitting he doesn’t have any lucky charms. “If we end up with one of the four picks at the top of the draft, that would obviously be a great thing.

“If not, there are other ways to improve the team. There’s a pretty significant salary slot for a top-four pick,” he continued. “Theoretically, there’s the opportunity to use that money, if it’s not being spent on a high draft pick, on some players in free agency or use that gap of money to be a part of another transaction that could help us. Time will tell.”

The Pacers could have access to a large portion of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception this offseason if they don’t keep their draft pick, and that exception would allow them to add a solid free agent. The team could use another offensive weapon to add to their second unit and would benefit from an upgrade at the reserve center position. Indiana’s depth has been a superpower in recent years – adding to it would behoove the current reigning Eastern Conference champions.

How the Pacers offseason will go can’t be known until May 10. But the team has a plan for whatever result comes their way via the lottery. Ping pong balls will determine if that’s a free agency focused path or a draft focused one.