MLB Best Home Run Bets

Jo Adell (Los Angeles Angels - OF)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+290) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Among tonight’s probable starting pitchers, Jeffrey Springs has allowed the most home runs per nine innings (2.16 HR/9). Springs didn’t allow a home run through his first four starts, but that stretch is a distant memory, as he’s allowed 19 home runs in 11 subsequent starts.

The lefty has allowed multiple home runs in three straight starts and four of his last five. In addition, Springs has ceded 13 of his 19 home runs to 243 right-handed batters this year and 12 of 19 to 202 batters faced at home.

The hitting conditions are also ideal for a home run at Sutter Health Park. Since last year, Sutter Health Park’s 117 park factor for homers is tied for the third-highest mark. The Angels don’t have many hitters who are likely to take advantage of the matchup and hitting conditions.

However, Jo Adell is built to rip a home run tonight. Adell has hit 10 home runs in 76 games and 318 plate appearances in 2026, with a 17.8-degree launch angle, 21.5% line-drive rate and 40.4% fly-ball rate.

Adell understands his bread is buttered by lifting and launching the ball. The rest of his batted-ball profile is mixed. Among 256 qualified batters in 2026, Adell is tied for 108th in barrels per plate appearance rate (6.1%), tied for 123rd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (8.5%), 67th in hard-hit rate (45.5%), tied for 76th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.5 mph), tied for 15th in maximum exit velocity (114.9 mph), tied for 131st in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (33.6%) and has the 49th-steepest launch angle. He’s above average in most of those marks, but his maximum exit velocity shows Adell has massive raw power. Adell has an ideal matchup to tap into his power against a homer-prone pitcher and should hit a home run tonight.

Max Muncy (Los Angeles Dodgers - 3B)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+324) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Max Muncy has crushed 16 home runs in 69 games and 259 plate appearances this year, with a 12.8-degree launch angle, 17.3% line-drive rate, 39.5% fly-ball rate, 25.0% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 55.6% pull rate.

The 35-year-old left-handed batter has hit 12 of his 16 homers in 200 plate appearances against righties, nine of them in 110 plate appearances at home and seven of them in 82 plate appearances against righties at home.

The veteran slugger has sweet batted-ball data, too. Among 256 qualified batters this year, Muncy is tied for 15th in barrels per plate appearance rate (10.0%), 14th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (16.0%), 48th in hard-hit rate (46.9%) and tied for 19th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.8 mph).

Muncy has a cushy matchup and dreamy hitting conditions tonight. Rookie righty Trey Gibson has allowed four home runs in five appearances (four starts) at 1.69 HR/9. He’s allowed two homers to 21 batters on the road and two to 49 left-handed batters in 2026.

The park factors are also outstanding. UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium has the highest park factor for homers (133) since 2025. The excellent hitting conditions don’t end there, either. The wind projects to blow out to right field tonight, enhancing Muncy’s pull-side power potential. Muncy should muscle up for a home run tonight.