Harden's Fit In Cleveland

Even though the Knicks swept them, Harden told reporters that he "genuinely" thought the Cavs were "the better team." Prior to Game 4, head coach Kenny Atkinson said the Cavs were "two out of three in the expected wins," which was a reference to their shooting numbers being below expectations and the Knicks shooting above expectations.

Had the Cavs not blown a 22-point lead in the fourth quarter of Game 1, who knows how the series might have played out? But they did, and Harden was one of the primary culprits of that collapse.

As the Knicks mounted their furious rally, their entire offense more or less boiled down to "get Jalen Brunson the ball, get him isolated against Harden and get out of the way." According to ESPN's Vincent Goodwill, Brunson was 7-of-11 in Game 1 with Harden as his primary defender and 8-of-18 against anyone else.

Donovan Mitchell didn't fare much better against Brunson, according to the NBA's matchup data. Brunson went 6-of-10 throughout the series with Mitchell as his primary defender.

As the Cavs go into contract negotiations with Harden, that's a question they'll need to ask themselves. Mitchell is on the smaller side at 6'2". Can a backcourt duo of him and Harden hold up defensively in the playoffs? (Harden was in the 16th percentile leaguewide this year in Dunks and Threes' estimated defensive plus/minus.)

For now, the Cavs do have Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen roaming in the frontcourt to help clean up any defensive mistakes. But Harden, who turns 37 in August, is likely to become even more of a defensive liability as he gets older. Can the Cavs afford paying big money to someone who gives them a glaring Achilles' heel in the playoffs, no matter how much he might lift the floor on their offense?

If the Cavs still had most of their stars on rookie-scale contracts, they might be able to afford a big-money deal with Harden despite his downsides. But they're already feeling the financial pinch even before they re-sign him.

Cavs Need More Financial Flexibility

Sneaking below the second apron this offseason would allow the Cavaliers to aggregate two or more contracts in a trade to acquire a bigger salary. However, they would not be able to take back more salary than they send out via trade unless they dipped below the first apron. They also wouldn't have access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and couldn't acquire a player via sign-and-trade (such as LeBron James) unless they got below the first apron as well.

The Cavs already have most of their core in place for next season other than Harden. Mitchell, Mobley and Allen are all under contract for least one more year, as are role players such as Max Strus, Dennis Schröder, Sam Merrill and Jaylon Tyson. Dean Wade and Keon Ellis are their most notable free agents other than Harden, neither of whom are irreplaceable by any means. (Ellis played 89 total minutes in the playoffs.)

Mitchell, Mobley and Allen alone will earn more than $128 million combined next season. Add in Strus ($16.7 million), Schröder ($14.8 million), Merrill ($9.2 million) and Tyson ($3.7 million), and the Cavs are already well over the projected $165 million salary cap.

The aprons are their bigger concern. The first apron is projected to be $209 million, while the second apron is projected to be $222 million. Going over the first apron would close off their pathways to acquiring LeBron or anyone else via sign-and-trade or the non-taxpayer MLE.

Including the No. 29 pick in this year's draft, the Cavs already have more than $180 million in guaranteed salary on their books. That's not counting Harden's player option nor their $2.4 million team option on Craig Porter Jr. Harden couldn't earn more than $25 million or so if they intended on staying below the first apron.

ESPN's Bobby Marks recently floated a two-year, $56 million framework as what he'd offer Harden. His starting salary of $28 million would push the Cavs right up against the first apron before they filled out their final few roster spots. And Harden would effectively be declining his $42.3 million player option for an extra $14 million in 2027-28. Is he willing to make that much of a financial sacrifice?

Harden might not have a choice in the matter.

Cavs, Harden Both Lack Leverage

The Cavs presumably didn't trade Darius Garland for Harden with the intention of allowing Harden to walk this offseason. All reporting suggests that both sides will come to an agreement on an extension.

Both sides also know that each other's options are limited.

The Los Angeles Lakers, Brooklyn Nets and Chicago Bulls are the only three teams projected to have significant cap space this summer. The Lakers don't need another guard—particularly one in his late 30s—while the Nets and Bulls are in the early stages of a rebuild. Neither would be a great fit for Harden at this stage of his career.

Unless Harden is willing to take the non-taxpayer MLE somewhere else, a sign-and-trade would be his only other realistic way out of Cleveland if he declines his player option. But he's been in this exact situation before, which should give the Cavs pause about attempting to lowball him.

In 2023, Harden expected the Philadelphia 76ers to offer him a max contract after he took a discount the prior summer to help the Sixers fill out their supporting cast. Instead, they allegedly went radio-silent on him in the days leading up to free agency.

The Sixers insisted they were trying to avoid another tampering penalty after the NBA stripped them of two second-round picks the previous fall, according to ESPN's Ramona Shelburne. But Harden went full scorched-earth by picking up his player option, demanding a trade and then escalating the pressure on the Sixers throughout the rest of the offseason.

For now, all seems copacetic between Harden and the Cavaliers. After they got swept, Harden insisted that he unquestionably wanted to stay in Cleveland next year.

Money talks, though, particularly when it comes to Harden in recent years. And between their apron concerns and whatever else they might have up their sleeves this offseason, the Cavaliers can't tell Harden to name his asking price this summer. They'll need to show restraint in negotiations with Harden and his agent.

Can they find enough common ground to steer clear of the second apron while satisfying Harden? The rest of the NBA will be watching with morbid curiosity.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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