Pre-Season Hopes and Expectations

Going into the season, Breslow touted that the club was going to rely on pitching and defense, as they failed to sign any of the big bats they sought. First baseman Pete Alonso signed for $155 million with interdivision rival Orioles, Alex Bregman held firm on his no trade demand and took $175 million from the Cubs, and even Bo Bichette shunned Boston, agreeing to a massive three year/$126 million deal with the Mets. That left the team with no one in the projected starting lineup other than Trevor Story who had ever hit 25 homers in a season. So without power, it had to be run prevention. Unfortunately, the pitching has not been the answer.

Pitching

After Saturday, the team has 4.44 ERA (ranking in the bottom third) and are in the bottom half of baseball in strikeout to walk ratio. They have given up 37 home runs (third most in MLB, behind only Houston’s beleaguered pitching staff and the mess in Washington). Only seven teams have given up more earned runs.

To give this some context, ace Garrett Crochet, who many believed would vie for the Cy Young Award this season, threw six shutout innings in Baltimore on Saturday, surrendering just three hits while striking out seven. That brought his ERA down to a robust 6.30. Ranger Suárez, who the team signed to a $130 million contract in the off-season to be a reliable number two starter, is currently 1-2 with a 4.00 ERA, 4.06 FIP, with a 2.38 strikeout to walk ratio. Brayan Bello, who the team gave a $55 million extension prior to the 2024 season, is 1-3 with 9.00 ERA and thirteen walks against just 15 strikeouts, while being tagged for eight home runs. And, just to add injury to insult, Johan Oviedo, who Boston acquired from Pittsburgh in the Jhostynxon Garcia deal, went on the 60-day IL with a right flexor strain after giving up four earned runs in his one and only appearance this season.

Defense

From a defense efficiency standpoint (i.e., the percentage of balls in play converted into outs), Boston ranks 26^th in MLB. And they are in the bottom ten of turning double plays. The good news is that they have only made 16 errors over 27 games, which puts them on pace for just 96, and which is considerably better than the 116 they made last year. However, second base and shortstop have been very much below average, with the league’s second most errors at short, and a bottom ten in fielding percentage at the Keystone.

Offense

But if you want to know the real culprit, look no further than the Red Sox offense. Despite pushing across 17 runs in a ridiculous breakout Saturday in Baltimore (the first time they have scored in double digits this season) the team is still hitting just .233, which again, in is the bottom third. The team hit three dingers on Saturday*, a 20% increase on the 15 they had hit in the prior 26 games. Only the San Francisco Giants, who play in the cavernous Oracle Park, have fewer.

_{*All three were hit in a 10-run ninth inning, with two smacked off left fielder Weston Wilson, who was brought in to pitch in the blowout.}

The trouble truly lies in their team’s best players not living up to any expectations (save for maybe Wilyer Abreu).

• Trevor Story, who bounced back last season and gave the team hope for more consistency this year, is hitting .196 with two homers.
• Jarren Duran, who many believed would be traded in the off-season to ease some of the outfield positional glut, who made a name for himself with a tremendous World Baseball Classic, is hitting .198 with just one dinger.
• Caleb Durbin, who came over from Milwaukee to fill the hole left by Alex Bregman, went 2-for-4 on Saturday, hitting his first homer of the year, and raised his batting average to .165.
• Marcelo Mayer made the club out of spring training, poised to become the second baseman of the future, is slashing .222/.296/.365, with just one home run and five RBI.
• Supposed rookie sensation Roman Anthony, who Boston was relying on to lead off and carry the team, has missed the last four games with a stiff back. But, even before he was laid up, he was hitting .225 with one home run and just five extra base hits. He still gets on base (.361 OBP), but that alone is not enough to help a team that cannot consistently hit, nor hit for much power.

What Comes Next?

The season is by no means over, but, as Yogi Berra once said, “it’s getting late early.” Boston has lost 30 percentage points off their pre-season playoff odds, currently sit in last place in the AL East and are looking up at the other four teams in the division were respect to such odds. Arguments can be made that Cora and the rest of the staff were just cooking with the ingredients that Breslow and the front office provided (none of the coaching staff was responsible for the intransigence that allowed Bregman to leave for Chicago). But, arguments can also be made that Cora wasn’t motivating the team, that they were playing lackluster baseball, that after seven plus seasons over the past eight years, that his message was getting stale. And a team that is underperforming on the mound and in the batter’s box needs change there as well. Breslow seemed to think so, and so now he will pay Cora more than $10 million to go away.

There is no word yet on who comes after Cora, or what comes next for this team. But desperate times require desperate action, and, with 20% of the season in the books, the Red Sox find themselves in desperation mode.