NEW YORK, NY: Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees hits a home run in his first MLB at bat during the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on August 13, 2016. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
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Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker are two of the best – and richest – outfielders in Major League Baseball. Would you be surprised that 10 years ago, both were ranked behind numerous prospects that flopped?
Matt Olson hit his 300th career home run Monday night. The Atlanta Braves’ slugger was ranked well behind both Judge and Tucker in 2016.
It is particularly true of pitchers, especially in today’s game when they are all encouraged to throw as hard as possible and injury be damned. We’ll fix you with Tommy John surgery.
Tell that to Alex Reyes, Anderson Espinoza, Francis Martes and Jose De Leon. All were ranked well above Judge, Tucker and Olson in 2016. All had the surgery. Espinoza and DeLeon had it twice. Reyes is retired, De Leon pitching in Puerto Rico, Espinoza in Japan and Martes in Mexico.
DETROIT: Kevin McGonigle of the Detroit Tigers celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting his first major league home run in the 5th inning against the Miami Marlins at Comerica Park on April 12, 2026. (Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
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Yes, there are young players who appear comparable to Judge, Tucker and so many other current MLB stars. Both Baseball America and MLB.com rated shortstops Konnor Griffin and Kevin McGonigle 1-2 entering this season. McGonigle broke camp with the Detroit Tigers and has hit .315 in his first 34 career games. Griffin, 20, hit .438 in five games at Triple-A Indianapolis and was called up by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’s hitting .262 and is 7-for-7 in steal attempts in 29 games.
There are plenty of prospects in 2026. Just as there were in 2016. Will they be boom or bust?
In 2016, Alford was a 21-year-old outfielder in the Toronto Blue Jays’ organization. He had hit .298 with 91 runs and 27 steals in 2015. Baseball America ranked him No. 25 overall; MLB.com at No. 42.
The Jays signed him for $750,000 as a third-round pick at age 17 in 2012. He played in their system in the summer and was a quarterback at Southern Mississippi and defensive back at Mississippi in the fall for two years before concentrating completely on baseball.
BALTIMORE: Pinch-runner Anthony Alford of the Toronto Blue Jays slides safely into third base in the ninth inning on a single by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 17, 2019. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
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In 102 career games for Toronto (2017-20) and Pittsburgh (2020-22), he hit .209 with 8 homers, 20 RBI and 11 steals.
Judge got $1.8 million to sign as a first-round pick in 2013. In 2016, he was ranked No. 31 overall by MLB.com and No. 76 by Baseball America. In 2015 in 124 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he had hit only .255 with 20 homers, 72 RBI. His 26.9% strikeout rate and ordinary .681 OPS at Triple-A was of concern.'
He was MVP again in 2024 and 2025 and continues to pile up numbers.
In 2016, Brinson was the clear choice. ranked No. 16 overall by MLB.com and Baseball America (calling him a potential 30-homer, 30-steals a season player). Tucker was No. 61 by Baseball America, No. 74 by MLB Pipeline.
ST. LOUIS: Lewis Brinson of the Milwaukee Brewers is unable to catch a double by Matt Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on June 13, 2017. (Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images)
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Brinson got $1.625 million from the Texas Rangers as pick No. 29 in the 2012 MLB Draft. It seemed everybody wanted the outfielder – until they got him. He was traded to Milwaukee, Miami, signed by Houston and dealt to San Francisco. In 357 MLB games, he hit .198 with 28 homers and 10 steals.
Tucker got $4 million as pick No. 5 overall in 2015 by the Houston Astros. This past January, the Los Angeles Dodgers gave the free agent a four-year, $240 million deal.
Brinson had 30-30 potential. Tucker has twice hit 30 homers. He hit 29 and stole 30 for the Astros in 2023.
Ranking Tucker lower in 2016 was not that bad. He was only age 19. Brinson was 22 and should have been more advanced. Turns out, he advanced into retirement ahead of many players from the 2016 rankings still producing such as Cody Bellinger (No. 54 by BA), Ozzie Albies (BA, 63), Willson Contreras (67, BA), Jorge Polanco (No. 97 by MLB.com).
You know where this matchup of slugging first basemen is heading. Reed, ranked No. 11 by Baseball America and No. 40 by MLB.com. vs. Olson, No. 100 by MLB.com and unranked by BA proved to be no contest.
Reed got $1.350 million from Houston as the first pick of the second round in 2014. He played 62 MLB games and hit .149 with four homers.
SEATTLE: Ozzie Albies celebrates with Matt Olson of the Atlanta Braves after their back-to-back solo home runs during the sixth inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on May 4, 2026. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
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He got more money to sign than Olson ($1,079,700) did as the 47th overall choice in 2012 by the Oakland Athletics. Olson is now in the middle of an eight-year, $168 million deal signed with the Atlanta Braves in 2022 after being traded for four prospects.
From 2021 through 2025, Olson averaged 37 homers, 109 RBI. He currently leads the NL in homers (12), RBI (32) and is hitting .300.
Matching the production by the Yankees’ great is quite a high target. Yet catcher Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners outhomered Judge, 60-to-53 a year ago. Who would have thought that possible?
Dodgers prospect James Tibbs III currently leads Triple-A with 11 homers. Yankees prospect Spencer Jones has been called a left-handed Judge. He has 10 at Triple-A this year after clouting 35 across two levels in 2025.
Munetaka Murakami leads MLB with 14 homers for the Chicago White Sox. The Japanese import was not on any lists in recent years.
There are other power prospects in the minors though it entirely possible that a player will sneak up and over scouting reports to become a sensation like Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout or Aaron Judge. Any scout will tell you his job is a science – just not an exact science.
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