What Does Sean Strickland Need to Do to Win?

It's pretty simple, but really hard to execute. Strickland has to prove he is capable of stopping the takedown.

Strickland's takedown defense sits around 72%, which is workable against most middleweights but not the bar he needs against a champion who landed 12 takedowns and controlled 22 of 25 minutes against Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319.

Stuff the early shots, drag the fight into the championship rounds where Chimaev has historically slowed, and Strickland's volume jab becomes a real weapon. Fail to defend even the first takedown cleanly and the entire game plan unravels.

What's the Worst-Case Scenario for Sean Strickland at UFC 328?

If Chimaev decides to extend this fight a bit early, he could choose to keep things standing in the first round. If he lands something significant or simply holds his own, perhaps even winning the first frame, that's bad news for Strickland. The champion will have proven he can compete in Strickland's world before going to his bread and butter.

If after that happens, Chimaev then takes Strickland down and dominates him the way he did Dricus du Plessis en route to winning the title, and in the way he manhandled Robert Whittaker before collapsing the bottom row of his teeth with a face crank, it’ll add another layer to the domination.

If we're talking psychological, Chimaev could make things even worse. If he trash talks Strickland in the middle of the ground domination, it could be humiliating for the former champion. Lastly, a loss — especially a one-sided affair — could send Strickland to gatekeeper status permanently.

Think about it, Strickland defeated a depleted Israel Adesanya to win the title and promptly lost it to DDP. Strickland won a split decision over Paulo Costa to earn a rematch where he lost more definitively to DDP. He mauled Anthony Hernandez earlier this year to earn another title shot, but if he loses again and is dominated, it'll be tough for him to get another title shot any time soon. Because he's already 35, the stakes are high.

Why Does This Loss Hit Different Than Strickland's Others?

The losses to DDP were respectable. Being on the wrong side of pure domination at this stage of Strickland's career isn't a good look.

Both losses to du Plessis went to the scorecards, with the rematch landing as a clean unanimous decision but neither reading as a mauling. A 50-44 or 49-45 beating from Chimaev paired with Strickland's pre-fight rhetoric thrown back in his face flips his entire persona on him in real time. The trash-talker getting talked to from top position for 25 minutes is a different kind of damage than a close decision loss.

What Happens to Sean Strickland's Career After UFC 328?

If he loses to Chimaev, Strickland probably gets another matchup with a fighter ranked below him. A rematch with Brendan Allen, a scrap with Joe Pyfer or perhaps a fight with Caio Borralho. In any case, he'd probably be the last step in front of those guys to keep them from getting a title shot.

That's the gatekeeper role in its purest form, and the UFC has a long history of pivoting former champs into it once the matchmaking math stops adding up.

Strickland would still be relevant, still be on big cards, and still pull eyeballs based on his persona — but a fourth title shot would require a three or four-fight run against ranked names, and the runway to get there gets shorter with every fight at his age.