“The Home Depot is at the forefront of this shift, using our technology to anticipate the exact moment a consumer’s mindset shifts from winter dormancy to spring projects,” shared Brennan Gerster, The Weather Company.
Courtesy of The Weather Company and Home Depot
Everyone in retail knows that the weather has a profound impact on sales. Retailers have long blamed weather for poor quarterly performance. But the real issue isn’t the weather itself—it’s the failure to put predictive weather data to work to drive sales, rather than passively let it dictate results.
The American Meteorological Society found that an average of 3.4% of retail sales are directly affected by weather changes each year—roughly $300 billion out of the $8.7 trillion in U.S. retail sales last year. The National Retail Federation underscored just how important it is: “No other external factor influences consumer demand as frequently, directly or meaningfully as changes in the weather.”
Home Depot is one of the retailers most exposed to weather-driven demand changes. With a fleet of about 2,000 U.S. stores, its business hinges on seasonal DIY projects, storm preparation and recovery and outdoor activities. Yet changes in year-over-year weather patterns can play havoc with quarterly comps. Regions hit by severe hurricanes in 2024 had none in 2025, pressuring third-quarter results, while early 2026 winter storms lifted January sales by 1.4% in the U.S. Nonetheless, the company still posted a 3.8% revenue decline in the fourth quarter ending February 1, with flat comps and transactions down 1.6%.
Rather than let weather be an external force driving sales up or down, Home Depot is moving aggressively to get ahead of it. It has partnered with The Weather Company to use hyperlocal, predictive weather intelligence to anticipate how conditions will affect demand and adjust marketing and messaging accordingly.
While Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said in the latest earnings call, “We don’t have perfect adjustments for storms and the like,” this partnership is bringing the company closer to achieving that goal than traditional methods allowed.
Consumers check the weather constantly. It’s time for retailers to pay as much attention—and thanks to enhanced weather intelligence and AI, they finally have the tools to do so.
“Many retailers are still looking at weather as an excuse for last quarter’s performance. The leaders we work with are treating it as a primary input for next quarter’s strategy,” The Weather Company CEO Rohit Agarwal said in a statement.
A recent TWC survey among 300 C-suite executives stressed how much the right weather data can contribute to results, finding that revenues can be boosted by as much as 10% and operating expenses cut significantly through atomized weather intelligence.
And its value extends beyond the obvious supply chain management and demand planning benefits. Weather intelligence can be used in marketing to deliver the right messages at the right time to the right consumers.
Weather intelligence doesn’t just help a retailer’s bottom line—92% of retail executive said weather had specifically impacted their company’s operating costs. It can also drive topline growth. Some 80% of retailers said weather-powered marketing can positively contribute to annual revenue results.
Home Depot is a leader in using weather to drive sales. “The Home Depot is at the forefront of this shift, using our technology to anticipate the exact moment a consumer’s mindset shifts from winter dormancy to spring projects,” shared Brennan Gerster, chief business officer and general manager of consumer at The Weather Company.
“It’s no longer about just showing an ad; it’s about being a helpful partner in the consumer’s journey at the precise moment the environment predicts their needs. That level of innovation is what drives both superior customer experiences and measurable business impact,” he continued.
The company tested that concept last year through a pilot program that used soil temperature, not just the calendar, to determine when homeowners should begin spring planting or apply crabgrass treatment. Localized weather-triggered messages delivered through Yahoo and Meta, and later expanded across TWC digital channels, drove 6x higher conversion rates.
Home Depot reaped the rewards. Through the first six months of 2025, sales were up 7% and the company is bringing the program back this year with hopes for a similar strong performance.
Outdoor garden was a $10.5 billion business for Home Depot last year, just over 6% of its total $164.7 billion in net sales.
While the calendar says spring has arrived, much of the country hasn’t caught up with it yet. Around this Easter holiday weekend, two late-season winter storms are predicted for the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region. Severe thunderstorms are forecast across the central and southern Plains, April showers will fall along the East Coast as the Sun Belt enjoys sunny weather.
It’s a hodge-podge of conflicting signals. For a retailer like Home Depot with so much riding on weather-related purchases, it can’t rely on a fixed promotional calendar. It needs far more precise timing and fine-tuning in its marketing messages.
This is what Home Depot’s partnership with The Weather Company is delivering, as Allison Kolber, Home Depot’s vice president of integrated marketing, shared with me:
“Spring is a time when DIYers and Pros can finally tackle those jobs they have been planning all Winter, but when it is 85 and sunny in Miami, Florida and there’s still snow on the ground in Portland, Maine, they aren’t thinking about the same home improvement project. That’s why weather triggering was such an important tool to add to our toolbox.”
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