AI is Taking Over the Top of the Funnel

AI-mediated shopping is not a future behavior. Among early adopters, AI is already embedded in how they research, evaluate and narrow choices. The industry is treating checkout as the disruption, when in reality, the disruption is happening earlier in the journey.

Nearly a quarter of global consumers report turning to GenAI as an information source during their shopping journey, an increase of eight percentage points in just one year, according to a Euromonitor International consumer survey. Euromonitor data also shows AI-driven referrals grew more than 300% globally in 2025, far outpacing growth from other referral sources that posted a 40% growth rate.

These shifts in shopping also align with the evolution of broader spending behavior. Euromonitor research shows that across many mature markets, unit volumes are flat or declining while value continues to grow. Shopping frequency is under pressure, but spending per shopper is rising. Consumers are making fewer purchases, but the purchases they do make are more intentional.

AI fits naturally into that shift. It reduces cognitive load, explains tradeoffs, and helps shoppers feel confident they are making the right choice. Increasingly, it is determining what products people see, consider and shortlist before they buy. However, being the gateway does not automatically mean owning the checkout.

Checkout is About Consumer Control

The way AI checkout is being discussed today focuses heavily on speed and efficiency. Still, checkout has never been just another step in the funnel, but rather the moment of commitment. Consumers want reassurance that the product is right, the price aligns with value and responsibility is clear if something goes wrong.

AI can recommend products, compare alternatives and justify why something is the best option. What it has not yet earned is the authority to execute the transaction.

The data illustrates this gap clearly. AI is expected to influence roughly $780 billion in global retail e-commerce sales by 2029, according to Euromonitor forecasts. Only $39 billion of that influence is projected to convert through chat‑based checkout. For comparison, global e-commerce is forecast to reach approximately $6.1 trillion in total sales in 2029

AI will continue to shape more of what people buy, even as the final purchase remains human. It’s not because the technology isn’t ready, it’s because consumers aren’t ready to hand over that moment of control.

Shoppers Draw the Line at AI Checkout

Part of the AI checkout hype assumes all automation is viewed the same way by shoppers when it is not. Consumers have embraced automation when it feels low risk, predictable and unobtrusive. Subscriptions and auto‑replenishment are now part of daily life. However, handing shopping decisions over to AI, by allowing it to recommend a product, is very different from letting it authorize payment.

Only 27% of global consumers say they are very or extremely comfortable with companies automatically reordering products on their behalf, according to a Euromonitor survey. That level of comfort is lower than many other automated behaviors, like autonomous driving, that have been discussed far more cautiously in public discourse.

It’s also important to note that this question focuses on reordering products that require little consideration, such as Amazon’s Subscribe and Save program. Even with these types of repeat purchases, a majority of consumers still want control over the buy button. If shoppers are not ready to let bots take control, it won’t matter if they have the capability to buy.

Retailers are not Behind on AI Checkout

The approach of some retailers, such as Amazon, to AI checkout is often portrayed as reluctance or resistance. While there is certainly an element of protecting their position—particularly concerns around losing control of the consumer relationship, the commoditization of products and pricing, and the erosion of retail media revenues—it also reflects a more grounded understanding of how consumers behave.

Retailers are aggressively investing in AI where shoppers see immediate value. Discovery tools, personalized recommendations, basket‑building, and value explanation are becoming standard capabilities across digital retail experiences. At the same time, checkout remains anchored in environments that reinforce trust, transparency and recourse.

This approach reflects what the data shows about where value is created. Loyalty, repeat spending and lifetime value are still reinforced at the point of payment. Discovery may be increasingly fragmented across platforms and interfaces, but checkout remains one of the few moments where trust, data and brand equity converge.

Retailers are not behind on AI checkout; they understand shopper behavior better than most. AI may shape what shoppers consider buying, but shoppers still want to decide what gets bought.