The FIFA World Cup 2026 was supposed to drive retail and hospitality sales but it may not play out like that. (Photo by Michael Regan - FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
FIFA via Getty Images
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is coming to America but what was supposed to be a once-in-a-generation windfall, with millions of international visitors, sold-out hotels, packed bars and a merchandising boom stretching from Inter Miami CF jerseys to beer sales in airport terminals, is in danger of falling flat.
FIFA’s expanded format brings 104 matches to the U.S., Canada and Mexico, with the United States hosting a majority them.
Tourism Economics estimates that 1.24 million international visitors will travel to U.S. host cities, generating roughly $6.4 billion in tourism spending, while overseas visitors are expected to spend on average more than $5,000 during trips lasting close to 12 days.
But the retail and hospitality economy that expected a straightforward bonanza is worrying that the World Cup may produce winners and losers in equal measure.
The first surprise has been hotel demand. In recent weeks, FIFA has released thousands of previously reserved hotel rooms back after bookings failed to meet expectations. According to the American Hotel & Lodging Association, nearly 80% of hotel operators in U.S. host cities said reservations are running behind forecasts.
Several factors are suppressing international travel demand. Airfares remain high, the strong U.S. dollar has made America more expensive for overseas fans, and visa concerns have created friction for travelers especially from parts of Latin America, Africa and Asia.
The result is a tournament that may be more domestic than many investors anticipated and that matters enormously for retail.
International tourists typically spend far more on luxury goods, dining and entertainment than domestic sports travelers. A Brazilian or Japanese fan visiting New York for two weeks, for example, will behave differently from an American attending a single match where they live in New Jersey.
Luxury retail districts, upscale department stores and premium hotel restaurants were counting on affluent foreign visitors, but analysts tracking bookings in cities such as New York, Philadelphia and San Francisco say hotel occupancy is a little slower from regular summer levels.
There are exceptions. Dallas appears to be outperforming many host markets, with hotel revenue projections reportedly up 37% for June and 51% for July. And cities with strong domestic travel infrastructure and relatively affordable accommodation may ultimately benefit more than high-priced gateway cities.
For retailers, the biggest winners are likely to be value-oriented chains and experiential consumer brands rather than traditional luxury players.
Unsurprisingly, sporting goods retailers stand to benefit first. Demand for national team shirts, soccer boots, scarves and licensed merchandise is already accelerating. Nielsen data shows Hispanic fans are more than twice as likely as the overall U.S. population to have purchased MLS or team merchandise in the past year.
The World Cup’s younger audience profile also aligns with social-commerce trends, limited-edition drops and influencer-led marketing. Roughly, 40% of Americans expect their interest in soccer to increase, while three-quarters of Americans say they plan to follow the tournament in some capacity, Nielsen research suggests.
ForbesThe World Cup Is Coming To Your Grocery StoreThe real retail opportunity may be in watch-party economics. Unlike the Super Bowl, revolving around a single day, the World Cup stretches across more than a month, creating repeated spikes in food, beverage and convenience spending. Sports bars, fast-casual chains and beer brands could see a prolonged uplift.
It may look more like a month-long cultural festival with pockets of intense engagement concentrated in urban centers, among younger viewers and within multicultural communities.
Mexican beer brands, tequila companies and quick-service restaurant operators are particularly well positioned because of the crossover between soccer and Hispanic consumer spending, suggesting that spending may spill into entertainment districts rather than remain confined to stadiums.
Convenience stores and grocery retailers should also see gains from at-home viewing. The tournament’s schedule — with many matches during daytime U.S. hours — may encourage office watch parties and increased snacking purchases.
There is also a broader question hanging over the tournament: will America truly stop for soccer?
Some of the early warning signs — softer hotel demand, falling resale ticket prices and FIFA’s release of hotel inventory — suggest the tournament may leave retailers with all to play for.
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