What Happened

Last July, the Trump administration withdrew from a decades‑old tomato trade framework with Mexico that dates back to the mid‑1990s, walking away from the 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement and immediately imposing roughly 17% duties on most fresh Mexican tomato imports. Here is the problem: those imports are worth about $3 billion a year, and Mexico supplies roughly two‑thirds of the fresh tomatoes Americans eat. As you would imagine, you cannot rip out two‑thirds of your tomato supply with a tariff and expect prices to hold steady.

“You can’t rip out two‑thirds of your tomato supply with a tariff and expect prices to hold steady.”

Economists at Arizona State University and others estimate that the new duties alone could lift consumer tomato prices by around 7% to 10%. A more expansive, industry‑funded analysis was even more alarming, projecting an average retail tomato price increase of about 52% across affected Mexican varieties, including Romas, if the agreement were scrapped and tariffs fully imposed.

Mexico, for its part, has moved to enforce minimum export prices for tomatoes, effectively placing a floor under export prices and layering another cost under the tariff. The result: costs are stacking up all along the supply chain, from growers to importers to wholesalers, and your grocery bill is the last stop.

How The Iran War Is Disrupting Food Supply Chains

The sharp spike in oil and fuel prices tied to the Middle East conflict is likely to drive food prices higher. This is on top of tariffs, rising electricity costs and an immigration crackdown that has pushed up agricultural labor costs.

“Every truck moving Roma tomatoes from Mexican farms through Nogales or Laredo to your local supermarket is burning diesel that now costs dramatically more than it did before the war began.”

Diesel, the primary fuel for trucks and farm equipment, averaged just over $5.64 a gallon nationally, more than one‑third higher than before the Iran war, with prices well over $7.50 a gallon in high‑cost states like California. Every truck moving Roma tomatoes from Mexican farms through Nogales or Laredo to your local supermarket is burning that diesel. Those costs do not get absorbed in the supply chain; they are added on to the price.

Businesses that have already been absorbing some of the tariff shock for the past year have limited room left to swallow higher transportation and energy costs, as Boston College economist Brian Bethune told CNBC. If these elevated oil prices persist, retailers and consumers will be living with a persistent cost shock, not a temporary blip.

And it is not just the trucks. As I have shared in my previous “Food and the Iran War” columns - nitrogen fertilizers are almost entirely derived from natural gas, and its prices tend to move with global gas and oil markets. Roughly one‑fifth of global liquefied natural gas supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and continued disruption could push up ammonia and urea prices just as growers are planning the next tomato crop. When fertilizer becomes more expensive, the next harvest often becomes smaller and costlier.

“You are paying for a tariff fight, a geopolitical war, and spiking diesel — all at once, all in your pasta sauce.”

What Consumers Can Do

This is not the time to panic — it is the time to shop smarter.

• Buy canned and jarred. Most canned whole or crushed tomatoes sold in U.S. supermarkets are produced domestically, and imports from Italy typically move under longer‑term contracts that do not swing as quickly as spot fresh‑market prices. In many markets today, a 28‑ounce can of crushed tomatoes costs less than a handful of fresh Romas, and for sauces and soups the flavor is equal or superior.
• Shop seasonal and local. California’s field tomato season peaks in late summer; in those months, farmers markets and local farm stands can offer field‑fresh Romas and other plum types at prices well below supermarket retails that are tethered to import‑driven costs. Community‑supported agriculture boxes often include tomatoes at a flat weekly rate, which can insulate households somewhat from week‑to‑week price spikes.
• Explore substitutes. San Marzano‑style canned tomatoes, domestic grape and cherry tomatoes (often greenhouse‑grown), and sun‑dried tomatoes can deliver flavor complexity with less sticker shock. Cherry and grape tomatoes in particular benefit from more diversified production and have not felt the tariff shock as directly as Mexican Romas.

The Bottom Line

Roma tomatoes will not bring down the global trading system, but they are the warning light on the dashboard that tells us something deeper is wrong. As Roma prices spike it is signaling that trade policy, energy policy, immigration policy and food policy have all collided in our shopping carts. Americans spend about 10% of their disposable income on food, roughly double what they spend on gasoline, and concerns over grocery prices have topped consumer worry lists for at least three years.

Our policymakers cannot keep treating food as an afterthought in their trade fights.