Milly Alcock and Matthias Schoenaerts in "Supergirl."
Warner Bros.
Milly Alcock’s Supergirl is flying toward an even bleaker opening weekend at the domestic box office than originally projected, as Toy Story 5 is expected to win the box office crown for a second-straight weekend.
Supergirl plays in special fan screenings on Wednesday night, with preview screenings set for Thursday evening. The film opens nationwide in 3,600 North American theaters on Friday. Supergirl marks the second film under James Gunn and Peter Safran’s DC Universe, following the release of the Gunn-directed Superman in July 2025. Gunn serves as a producer on Supergirl.
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Directed by I, Tonya and Cruella director Craig Gillespie directs Supergirl from a screenplay by first-time feature scribe Ana Nogueira. Set in outer space, Supergirl finds Lara Zor-El (Alcock) on an interstellar path of vengeance and justice when a vicious attack by Krem of the Yellow Hills (Matthias Schoenaerts) hits too close to home.
Rated PG-13, Supergirl also stars Eve Ridley as Lara’s ally Ruthye Marye Knoll, while Jason Momoa plays the alien mercenary Lobo (Jason Momoa). The film also stars David Krumholtz and Emily Beecham as Kara’s parents, Zor-El and Alura, while David Corenswet appears as Clark Kent/Superman.
Three weeks ago, Supergirl was tracking to earn $55 million in its opening weekend (per Deadline), a lackluster number considering that projected tally was less than half of what Superman earned in its opening weekend.
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Adding insult to injury, Matthew Belloni of Puck News cited numbers from the National Research Group in an X post on June 18, saying pre-release tracking had come down again for Supergirl with a projected $51 million.
On Wednesday, just on the heels of the review embargo lifting for Supergirl, Deadline came with an updated projection for the film’s opening weekend, and it appears that the film continues to lose altitude.
Supergirl is now projected by the trade publication to open in the upper $40 million range, while Variety is more specific with a $47 million to $50 million forecast.
If the projections hold, Supergirl’s take will be below Warner Bros./DC’s film flop The Flash, which earned $55 million in its opening frame in 2023, and is on par with Disney/Marvel’s 2023 superhero movie dud The Marvels, which had an opening weekend of $46.1 million.
Supergirl, per Deadline, had a $170 million production budget before marketing costs.
After enjoying the biggest opening weekend at the domestic box office in 2026 with a take of $159.6 million June 19-21, Disney-Pixar’s Toy Story 5 is projected by Deadline to earn anywhere from $88 million to $96 million in its second weekend frame, which would constitute a week 2 drop of -40% to -45%.
Variety, however, is projecting a lower second-weekend take of anywhere between $80 million and $90 million.
Forbes‘Toy Story 5’ End Credits Scenes: Why You Should Stay In Your SeatsBy Tim LammersDirected by Andrew Stanton and starring the voices of Tom Hanks, Tim Allen and Joan Cusack as Woody, Buzz Lightyear and Jessie, Toy Story 5 through Tuesday has earned $200.6 million domestically and $150.5 million internationally for a running worldwide box office tally of $351.1 million.
Toy Story 5 had a production budget of $250 million and cost “easily another $100 million to market,” according to the New York Times.
Opening to much less fanfare than Supergirl this weekend is Paramount Pictures’ Jackass: Best and Last. The MTV comedy stunt documentary series-turned-film franchise is projected by Deadline to earn about $10 million from 2,800 North American theaters, while Variety pegs a $10 million to $12 million opening. Jackass: Best and Last, per Variety, had a production budget of $10 million.
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