VELENCE, HUNGARY - MARCH 12: Peter Magyar, leader of the TISZA party, arrives for a campaign event on March 12, 2026 in Velence, Hungary. Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar, whose Tisza party has a narrow polling lead ahead of next month's parliamentary election, has tried to capitalize on concerns about the health and safety records of the country's battery plants, holding a series of rallies today on the topic. Hungary has been a key hub in Europe for battery production by Asian manufacturers, but the sector has been in decline in Hungary, while a recent report has highlighted health and safety violations at Samsung's battery plant in the northern town of God. (Photo by Janos Kummer/Getty Images)

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On April 12, millions of Hungarians will gather at the polls to vote in the 2026 parliamentary election. Reports by Gallup, Reuters, and The Economist predict it will be a significant event, and several countries across Europe and North America have started to take notice of Hungarian politics. The results of the parliamentary election in Hungary will shape the future of Hungarian relations with the European Union, Ukraine, and the United States.

Current polls suggest that opposition leader Péter Magyar and his Tisza party will perform well against Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the ruling Fidesz party. Magyar has focused his campaign on domestic issues within Hungary, where he has stressed the need for anti-corruption reform. He has also pledged to rebuild the Hungarian economy, and he hopes to strengthen democratic institutions. As for foreign policy, Magyar has called on Hungary to reduce its energy dependence on Russia and he wants Hungary to mend relations with the EU and NATO. This platform has attracted many young voters in Hungary, and The Guardian and AP News reported that young Hungarians are hopeful that a Magyar victory would make history as they look to change the course of Hungarian politics.

Despite Magyar leading in the polls, Hungary’s electoral system is structured in a way that has historically advantaged the leading party. During parliamentary elections in Hungary, voters cast two ballots. The first ballot is for a candidate in the district where the voter resides. The second ballot is for a particular political party. Under Hungary’s electoral law, votes cast for losing candidates and unused votes for winning candidates are applied toward the national party list total. This means that a political party can gain additional seats in parliament despite seeing its candidates lose in various districts. This electoral system particularly favored Fidesz during the 2022 parliamentary election, where the Atlantic Council reported that Fidesz secured 53% of the popular vote in 2022 yet the ruling party won a 68% majority in parliament. (Members of the Hungarian diaspora also have historically favored Fidesz.) Given these past events, Fidesz hopes for a similar outcome in the upcoming election.

Orbán and his party will do what they can to seek re-election. In contrast to Magyar and Tisza, who have called for reforms and greater engagement with organizations such as the EU and NATO, Orbán and the Fidesz party have stressed Hungarian nationalism. Orbán has accused the EU and NATO of being war-hungry against Russia. He has argued that Hungary should not aid Ukraine during the ongoing Russian invasion, and he has stated that the EU and NATO have not considered Hungarian interests. As a result, he has adopted a Hungary-first platform, seeking to portray himself as a leader of peace. Finally, he has resorted to fear-mongering tactics, arguing that immigration and the war in Ukraine will harm Hungary and he has alleged that Hungarian society will be harmed by these external factors should Magyar and Tisza win the election. (The Guardian, The New York Times, and The Moscow Times have also reported that the Russian Federation has taken efforts to help Orbán win re-election.)

EU And Ukraine Await The Results Of Hungary’s Parliamentary Elections With Angst

While young Hungarian voters have made their voices heard about Magyar and Tisza, non-Hungarians will also be watching the Hungarian parliamentary election closely on April 12. For example, the EU and Ukraine have taken particular notice of political developments in Hungary. Throughout Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine since February 2022, Orbán has vetoed or stalled discussions on defense aid and other forms of assistance to Ukraine. For example, in late 2023, Orbán blocked a €50 billion aid package for Ukraine that would have provided the Ukrainians with critical defense aid and other assistance against Russian forces. After several months of negotiations, Orbán eventually released his hold on the aid in the winter of 2024, but by this time, the Russians had fortified their positions in southern and eastern Ukraine. Additionally, in 2024, The Washington Times reported that Orbán told the EU and NATO that Hungary would not approve Ukraine’s usage of Western weapons to strike Russian military targets within Russian territory.

More recently, in March of this year, Orbán blocked the implementation of a €90 billion loan for Ukraine. Additionally, he called on the EU to ease sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.

Orbán’s decisions, especially last month, led several European leaders to criticize the Hungarian prime minister. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said that “[Orbán] is using Ukraine as a weapon in his election campaign.” Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Orbán’s actions amounted to a “gross act of disloyalty” to the EU and Ukraine, while European Council President António Costa accused Orbán of “blackmail.” Finally, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron called on Hungary to release the EU funds to Ukraine immediately.

Similarly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been critical of Orbán. Zelenskyy has stressed that the assistance the EU is sending is essential for Ukraine’s defense efforts against Russia’s ongoing invasion. Nonetheless, the tension between Hungary and Ukraine continues.

U.S. Support For Orbán And Hungary

Should Magyar win the election, EU and Ukrainian officials are hopeful that Hungary would establish pro-EU and pro-Ukraine engagements, leading to different discussions and outcomes on European foreign policy, national security, and defense. But as the Europeans and Ukrainians hope for a new change in power in Hungary, U.S. President Donald Trump and members of his administration have endorsed Orbán. In March, Trump wrote on his Truth Social account that he was “proud to endorse” Orbán for re-election. Similarly, during his visit to Hungary in February, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio endorsed Orbán. Vice President JD Vance has also traveled to Hungary this month to meet with Orbán ahead of the Hungarian parliamentary election.

Trump and Orbán have maintained a good relationship since Trump’s first term in office. The two leaders have stressed the importance of conservative and Christian values, and they have been critical of international organizations such as the United Nations, calling for reforms. Additionally, they have called on Russia and Ukraine to end their war, where both have questioned defense aid to Ukraine. Finally, Hungary was one of the first countries to accept an invitation to Trump’s “Board of Peace.” Now, Trump will be anxious to see whether his Hungarian ally will be successfully re-elected on April 12.

In other words, the outcome of the Hungarian parliamentary elections will have significant consequences for the European continent and the United States. Should Orbán and Fidesz be re-elected, it is anticipated that the Hungarian government will continue to move in opposition to the EU and Ukraine. But if Magyar and Tisza are victorious, Hungary may establish a new relationship with the EU and Ukraine, one that would favor economic opportunities and strengthen national security and defense across the European continent. Elected officials and policymakers across the EU, Ukraine, and the U.S. will be curious to see how the election results in Hungary will unfold.