Why Rescue Mission

According to President Trump the rescue mission required 155 aircraft including 4 bombers, 64 fighters, 48 refueling tankers, and 13 rescue aircraft. The remaining 28 likely included transport and attack helicopters, plus AWACS, and electronic warfare aircraft. Some drones were also included in the operation and these may also be included in the tally.

This is an large number of aircraft for one person. Perhaps the nearest comparable operation was the mission to capture Venezuela’s President Maduro, which also involved some 150 aircraft and had Special Forces going deep into enemy territory.

Looked at more closely though and you see that such resources are unavoidable .

As far as we can tell, the rescue took over over a disused airstrip to land two Special Operations MC-130 Hercules transports, carrying two MH-6 Little Bird helicopters each. These picked up the downed airman, but when both MC-130s became stuck in soft ground, two more transports were sent to pick up everyone. Fighters provided air cover, bombers dropped hundreds of bombs to suppress defenses and keep the Iranians distracted. Other elements are equally essential when one missile could spell disaster.

The abandoned MC-130s and helicopters were all blown up to prevent them from falling into Iranian hands. An A-10 attack aircraft providing close air support was also reportedly lost. The total cost of the losses is estimated at somewhere over $300 million.

This is not unexpected. In an emergency mission conducted under fire, things are apt to go wrong. This why there was so much redundancy built into the whole operation. Two MC-130s were sent rather than one, because one aircraft might break down or be hit by enemy fire and not be able to continue. Each MC-130 carried two Little Birds for the same reason. And, as the quick recovery showed, there was a backup team ready to step in if things went wrong.

Planners applied the same level of redundancy in the last major rescue operation, when F-16 pilot Scott O’Grady was retrieved in 1995 during the conflict in former Yugoslavia. On that occasion the rescue force consisted of two CH-53 helicopters escorted by two AH-1 gunships and two Harrier jets, with a duplicate force on standby., and many other supporting them.

This approach reflects hard-won lessons from Vietnam and elsewhere. Recovery teams must be exceptionally well trained and equipped to deal with unpredictable and changing situations in all types of weather and terrain anywhere in the world. The U.S uniquely has the resources to carry out this sort of operation with 150 aircraft at a day’s notice.

The mission will only get more difficult as air defenses get stronger. And while attack aircraft may be fast, stealthy and maneuverable to evade missiles, the transports to get people out will always be vulnerable and will always be at risk.

But there is an alternative.

Francis Gary Powers And The Uncrewed Solution

When CIA U-2 pilot Francis Gary Powers was shot down over the Soviet Union in 1960 it was a diplomatic disaster for the U.S., which initially claimed that a weather plane had strayed off course. Powers was tried and put on show for Russian media; he confirmed that he worked for the CIA, and while he only gave details of the U-2 program that the Russians knew from the downed aircraft, the event was a major embarrassment and a blow to U.S. prestige.

U-2 overflights of hostile territory were limited after that, and instead the U.S. developed a range of uncrewed spy drones, in particular the AQM-34 Firebee series of jet-powered drones. These were derived from aerial targets and flew thousands of missions over Asia. In 1964 the Chinese staged an exhibition of downed U.S. Firebee spy drones, claiming a “major victory” in shooting down these American aircraft. The U.S. denied all knowledge, and, unlike the Powers affair, the rest of the world showed no interest.

The CIA continued to develop drones for reconnaissance, one of which evolved into the RQ-1 Predator. This was essentially a powered glider with long range and endurance, far less capable than a crewed aircraft but entirely expendable. One Predator cost around $4 million, with most of the cost being the sensors.

In 2001 the Predator was upgraded from pure reconnaissance to strike with the addition of Hellfire missiles. According to accounts from the time, the Air Force was opposed to the idea of uncrewed aircraft taking over this role, but the CIA insisted that they would develop the capability anyway. (It is worth noting that the U.S. successfully deployed a drone attack squadron in WWII, but this was disbanded after the war and the idea was shelved for several decades).

The Predator was succeeded by the Predator B, which the Air Force dubbed the MQ-9 Reaper. This looks much more like a traditional combat aircraft, with greater speed and a heavier bombload though shorter endurance. In 2021 the Air Force spend $781 million on 24 Reapers indicating that the cost of one with all its attendant gear was around $32 million.

As we have previously noted, this is at the deluxe end of the market and the Air Force really needs a cheaper Reaper to make them truly expendable. But even at this price, the Air Force is happy to send Reapers into danger because losing one incurs no political cost. There is no risk of a casualty, or of Iran taking aircrew hostage. At worst, it might be necessary to bomb the drone wreckage to prevent classified gear being captured.

As of April 7^th, at least 16 Reapers appear to have been lost since the start of operations against Iran. That is a lot of expensive hardware. But, as indifference to the losses from the rescue show, nobody cares about hardware.

If crewed aircraft continue to operate over Iran or future war zones, pilots will inevitably be lost of captured. Nobody is suggesting abandoning the policy that no one should be left behind. But every rescue mission may not have a happy ending, and the more that are needed, the greater the risk. And as interceptor drones proliferate the danger at low altitude multiplies.

With drones, the need and political risk of rescue missions disappears. In future, huge daring rescue operations may be confined to historic war movies.