TOPSHOT - Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech during the Victory Day military parade at Red Square in central Moscow on May 9, 2023. Russia celebrates the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany during World War II. (Photo by Gavriil GRIGOROV / SPUTNIK / AFP) (Photo by GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)

SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images

Ukraine’s drone war is reaching Moscow. That is a problem for Vladimir Putin. In recent months, Ukrainian drones have struck deep inside Russia, hitting areas once considered untouchable and moving closer to the country’s political center.

That shift raises an uncomfortable question for the Kremlin: can it protect one of its most important public events, and what happens to Putin’s image of control if it cannot?

A Parade Under Pressure

Victory Day on May 9 is more than a military parade. It is central to Putin’s narrative of strength and historical continuity. Each year it showcases Russia’s armed forces and reinforces the image of control.

Now it risks becoming a vulnerability. Putin has insisted Russia remains on track. “We have enough strength to bring what was started in 2022 to a logical conclusion,” he said in a May 2025 interview with state media.

But the drone war is quickly moving in the opposite direction. Ukraine is not just defending. It is striking back, and doing so with increasing reach. “Ukraine has consistently exceeded expectations despite enormous challenges,” Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army forces in Europe, told me.

Addressing leaders at a meeting of the European Political Community in Yerevan, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia may even scale back the display itself. “Russia has announced a May 9 parade in Moscow without military equipment. If that happens, it will be the first time in many, many years,” he said.

Breaking Through Moscow’s Defenses

For years, Moscow was seen as effectively shielded. Dense air defense networks made it one of the hardest targets in the war.

That may no longer hold. Denis Shtilerman, chief designer at Fire Point, said in 2025 that reaching Moscow remained “very difficult” because of its defenses. Yet by May 2026, Ukrainian officials say their FP-1 drones had passed through three defensive echelons and bypassed more than 100 air defense positions, including S-400 systems and Pantsir units.

Open-source analysis also indicates that the Kremlin is continuing to pour air defense resources into Moscow ahead of the parade. In April, Russian milblogger Romanov also claimed that some Pantsir air defense units were running short of missiles.

Since the start of the year, Ukraine’s campaign appears to be steadily wearing down those defenses. “The Ukrainian drone program is at an advanced stage,” Clément Molin, an independent open-source analyst, told me. His analysis recorded more than 400 Ukrainian long-range strikes in April 2026 alone.

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told me that Ukraine’s strike campaign is improving in both quantity and quality. The attacks are becoming more frequent and better organized, he said, benefiting from intelligence on Russian air defense positions and from the steady degradation caused by repeated strikes.

Together, these assessments point to a campaign designed less for immediate destruction than for cumulative pressure. “Ukraine's strategy against Russian air defense has always been aimed at causing damage over a very long period of time,” open-source analyst Andrew Perpetua told me.

From Symbolic Strikes To Strategic Pressure

Ukraine has shown restraint before. According to RBC-Ukraine, in May 2025, Zelensky said Kyiv avoided striking Russia during Victory Day after requests from China and other countries hosting visiting leaders.

With few signs of a durable ceasefire, Kyiv may have less reason to hold back. “Russia has brought this on itself by breaking every ceasefire since 2014,” Taras Kuzio, a professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, told me.

The reported strike on Moscow’s Mosfilm Tower on May 4, just a few kilometers from the Kremlin, underlines the shift. The war is no longer distant for Russia’s elite.

The pressure is now visible at the top. The Financial Times reported that Russia’s Federal Protective Service has sharply tightened security around Putin amid fears of assassination, including drone threats. Putin has reportedly reduced travel, spent more time in bunkers and faced tighter security protocols around his inner circle.

Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova told me that Putin’s grip on power is less secure than it appears, pointing to the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny as evidence of how quickly the system can wobble.

Political stakes are rising alongside the military pressure. Alexander Motyl, a political scientist who studies empires, told me that Russia is already “on the downward slope,” and that defeat in Ukraine could trigger a much faster collapse. For the Kremlin, the war is not just about territory. It is becoming a test of regime survival.

The drone campaign is also meant to force Russia to defend everywhere at once. Hodges added that Russia’s historical strength, its vast geography, has become a vulnerability. Every Ukrainian drone that reaches deep into Russia forces Moscow to decide what it can protect and what it must leave exposed. The military effect of any single strike may be limited, but the psychological and political impact is not.

“For years, Russia has relied on an assumption both at home and around the world that it is militarily strong and it would eventually win in Ukraine, perhaps slowly but inexorably; that Russia has a plausible theory of victory whereas Ukraine doesn't,” Maria Popova, associate professor of political science at McGill University, told me. That narrative, she argues, is becoming harder to sustain as Ukraine demonstrates reach into Russia’s rear.

If Victory Day is disrupted, even indirectly, the effect could be disproportionate. The parade is designed to show control. Any sign that it cannot be secured undermines that message.

“Ironically, the Kremlin's decision to scale down the victory parade for fear of a Ukrainian attack has boosted the potential importance of the parade,” said Popova. “If Ukraine manages to use the window of opportunity while Russia focuses its air defense on guarding Moscow to pull off a high-impact strike somewhere else, the impression that Russia is losing the war may spread far and wide.”

When Putin launched the invasion in 2022, it was framed as a contained “special military operation.” That framing depended on distance. Ukrainian drones are erasing it. The deeper they strike, the harder it becomes to separate the war from daily life in Russia’s core regions.

“We need to focus on what we will do if Russia does not end this war. We need continued pressure, and we need peace,” Zelensky said. That pressure is now reaching Moscow – and with it, the limits of the Kremlin’s control.