Going Ballistic

Few science fiction weapons have so much appeal to hardcore nerds as the so-called “Rods from God.” The idea, proposed by a US thinktank in the 1950s, was that dense metal rods could be dropped from orbit to hit targets on the surface. The preferred material is tungsten, which is twice as dense as steel and resists re-entry heating better, and the rods would de-orbit at Mach 10 or more and inflict damage by pure impact force, like falling asteroids. Speed and energy makes such weapons almost impossible to intercept.

A USAF study in the 2000s suggested that a 9-ton hypervelocity orbital weapon would leave a crater 100 feet deep, flattening every building within at least 1,000 feet. An even larger weapon proposed for the USAF would equal the effect of a 4-kiloton nuclear warhead.

These studies involved weapons which are places in orbit and then brought down when needed. A simpler approach is a powerful ballistic missile lofting the warhead which descends with tremendous force. Many studies have looked at this, including repurposing US Trident nuclear missiles into conventional bunker busters under the Prompt Global Strike program.

Russia is the only nation to actually carry out such an idea. The Oreshnik missile, derived from the earlier RS-26, is transported on a 14

-wheeled mobile launch vehicle. It is around 40 feet long and weighs something over 36 tons. The range is believed to be over 3,000 miles, putting it in the intermediate category.

The Russian first used Oreshnik on 21 November 2024, striking the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Dramatic video showed six submunition warheads streaking down at high speed, “like a meteorite falling” as Putin put it. However, the total impact energy, equivalent to about 2,000 pounds of TNT, is less impressive than previous designs.

It was not clear whether this first strike actually damaged anything. The target was the Yuzhmash plant where rockets were made, but there were no reports of casualties, and subsequent satellite images did not show craters, demolished buildings, or significant damage to the plant, which had been struck by previous Russian attacks.

A second Oreshnik was fired in January 2026, this time at the Western city of Lviv, along with other weapons. Again there was little evidence of the effectiveness of the missile, but the strike demonstrated that Russia could hit a far corner of Ukraine and was supposedly in response to a drone attack on one of Putin’s residences.

Retaliatory Attacks

The two previous strikes looked like preparation. But on 24th May 2026, Russia fired two Oreshniks, along with 600 drones and 90 other missiles, retaliation for a Ukrainian strike on a Russian drone training facility which reportedly killed 65 cadets. The goal appeared to be maximum damage.

One Oreshnik came down at Bila Tserkva near Kyiv. Video of the event shows each of the six warheads spitting into six submunitions as it descends. One set of submunitions hit a row of garages. An owner gave a tour of the impact site, his profanity-filled rant mixing anger at the extensive damage with mockery of the idea that this was a secret military installation – “you can see the kind of important strategic facilities we have here.” Another six submunitions hit in the grounds of an abandoned factory. The impactors were reportedly made of cast iron rather than the expected steel or tungsten.

One submunition landed beside a road, leaving a crater six feet across and two feet deep. This at least is an interesting data point. Split among 36 submunitions, the 2,000-pound TNT equivalent energy would give each impactor the power of 55 pounds of explosive. A crater this size does indeed correspond to about 50 pounds of TNT suggesting that the estimates on speed and weight are accurate.

The location of the second strike was only found later, in the Russian-controlled territory of Donetsk region. Again there were no reports of casualties.

“We struck places where it was convenient to assess the results. That applies both to Bila Tserkva and, even more so, to the area of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic…afterward, our drones flew in – to the barn that had been hit – and simply examined how the warheads had landed, measuring everything down to the millimeter,” Putin stated in the interview with RIA Novosti.

Russian Reaction

Russian military bloggers, summarized by ChrisO_wiki on X, were outraged. They had been arguing that Oreshnik was a superweapon which had inflicted massive damage on Ukrainian military targets, and that anything said to the contrary was propaganda. Now their own leader had completely trashed their claims. He even admitted hitting Russian-held territory.

“Remember how all the TV scum, rolling their eyes, excitedly described what super-strategic enterprises we'd destroyed with Oreshnik? Today, President Putin confirmed that barns were indeed hit.”

“So much for retaliatory strikes. It's simply unbelievable.”

“A big hello to everyone who wrote about NATO’s underground bases!”

They also question if, as the Oreshnik strikes were simply tests, there will be any actual retaliation for the strike on a Russian training facility. There has been no answer to that one.

Were the Oreshniks aimed at real targets and missed, perhaps thrown off by the Lima system which has apparently made Russia’s Kinzhal missiles useless? Or were the misses deliberate, as Putin claims? Neither looks good.

Missing In Action

“When I take action, I'm not going to fire a $2m missile at a $10 empty tent and hit a camel in the butt,” President George Bush stated in 2001.

A quarter of a century later, Putin is seemingly firing $50m missiles at empty barns and garages. And the cost is more than just the price of a missile. Ukraine has now recovered electronic components from Oreshniks which will have been shared with allies. A mass of classified data about the weapon’s capabilities has been compromised.

Whatever the reason, the spectacle of missile attacks hitting nothing of value projects weakness rather than strength.

Meanwhile Ukrainian long-range drone continue to ravage Russia’s oil industry, and new Ukrainian-made Fire Point FP-9 ballistic missiles capable of hitting Moscow should be fielded this summer. When they do into operation, the Russian bloggers have have even more to say.