A Full Hand Of Strike Drones

We have no independent verification of the number of drones used, but the Russian claim to have downed some 200 drones during the attack. Since Russian officials invariably claim that every single drone is shot down, and that any damage is the result of “falling debris,” this likely represents the total number.

Russian social media quickly filled with images of the drones flying over Moscow towards the refinery, giving military analysts an opportunity to identify them. Different Ukrainian military organizations tend to use different types, so a single attack may only involve one or two types. Here though there was a complete set: not only the AN-196 Lyutyi ("Fierce") and Fire Point FP-1, the mainstays of the refinery attack fleet, but also the more unusual Morok ("Darkness", preferred weapon of the Security Service of Ukraine), and some new delta-winged drones similar to the Russian Shahed. This may be the first confirmed combat use of the new Sichen (“Cutting”) attack drone unveiled in April. Russian sources also suggest that Bobr (“Beaver”) drones were also involved.

In addition to these comparatively slow propeller-driven types there is confirmed video of Bars (“Snow leopard”) jet-powered drones. These have a speed of over 400 mph and complicate matters for air defense.

Mixed in with these six types were likely a number of decoys. Russian sources claim that more than half of Ukrainian long-range drones are simply there to distract defenses and do not carry warheads, much as Russian sends in low-cost Gerbera decoys with its Shaheds. Little is known about Ukrainian decoys, but at Eurosatory this week Ukrainian OM Defense unveiled its SPEKTR decoy which is externally similar to the FP-1 and Lyutyi and has an adjustable radar reflector to imitate different types of drone or aircraft.

Ukraine’s showpiece FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile was conspicuously absent. The reason for this is likely simple: against such targets, the 2,000-pound FP-5 warhead would be overkill. Such weapons are reserved for harder targets which do not immediately burst into flames when hit.

Co-ordinating an attack involving hundreds of drones of different types, launched by different organizations from different sites at different times but all synchronized to arrive over the target in the same time window, is a major challenge. As the resulta show, such complex operations are now well within Ukraine’s capability. This is even more impressive when you consider that the flight path of every single drone is carefully calculated to avoid Russian air defence sites, sometimes resulting in J-shaped routes almost circling a target before the final approach.

“What Air Defense Doing?”

Moscow is one of the most heavily defended cities in the world, ringed with surface-to-air missile batteries capable of bringing down targets up to and including ballistic missiles. However, these were never designed to cope with slow, low-flying drones. The Russians have hastily re-fortified the city with new air defence towers, each with a mobile Pantsir anti-aircraft vehicle hoisted on to it. The locations of dozens of these have been mapped.

The Pantsir is armed with eight missiles and two 30mm automatic cannon. In theory it ought to be ideal for shooting down low, slow drones. In practice its performance has been poor. One report suggests that a new defense tower had just been built at the refinery, but the Pantsir had not been installed, something which Ukrainian planners would have been aware of.

Pantsir’s missiles have a range of over 12 miles, so the drones were within range of adjacent systems, and many missiles were fired at them.

These may have brought down a significant number of drones; the absence of videos may simply reflect bias in what gets posted and circulated. One video shows a surface to air missile hitting a drone but not destroying it; the drone crashes to the ground and explodes. This may have been the reported damage to a shopping mall close to the refinery.

Another video shows a surface-to-air missile missing a drone and hitting an oil storage tank, triggering the “flying saucer” explosion. This shows the dangers of using live ammunition around such sites. Unless operated competently such missiles may be worse than useless.

While some videos include a soundtrack of small arms fire, there is little sign of the mobile fire groups of volunteers armed with anti-aircraft machine guns which Russia is now deploying at scale. There may be some concern about such groups on the streets of the capital; bullets sprayed into the air will inevitably come down somewhere.

One video shows a Russian soldier firing a shoulder-launched Igla-type surface-to air missile at a drone. This misses, possibly because it is within the weapon’s minimum engagement range and the expensive missile is wasted to no purpose.

While Ukraine now fields large numbers of small interceptor drones, and achieves around a 90% intercept rate against Russian Shaheds, there is no sign of equivalent interceptors in Moscow.

Certainly many drones got through, with Russians reporting 15 or more direct hits on the refinery.

When air defense fails, the Russians rely on other forms of protection, in particular anti-drone cages and netting. At least some parts of the refinery were protected. In one video a drone runs into protective netting at least 50 feet above the target and detonating prematurely. However, a moment later, burning shrapnel from the blast ignites a fire below. Other netting may have been more successful.

There are plenty of lessons here for Russia about defense against drones. However, four years into the war and with Ukrainian drone strikes getting ever more destructive, even as surface-to-air missile stocks run dangerously low, it may be too late. As far as Moscow’s refinery goes, the damage is already done.

End Game For the Refinery

Ukrainians sometimes joke about “refinery bingo” and which Russian refinery is going to be hit next. The truth is though that while they may look spectacular, the attacks may not do much real damage. Burning oil storage tanks are a dramatic spectacle, but they are easily replaced. In most cases refineries are back to full operation after a few weeks. Many Russian refiners have been hit several times but continue to operate.

However, targeting is improving. Drones like the FP-1 now have Starlink connections, allowing the operator to guide the final attack run visually. Earlier drones relied on satellite navigation, which is less precise, even if not jammed or spoofed. Visual targeting can exactly hit specific elements of the refinery.

In particular the latest strike hit one of the refinery’s two OU-AVT-6 units. AVT or Atmospheric-Vacuum Distillation is the heart of the refining process, separating raw crude oil into specific fractions, kerosene, diesel, naphtha and so on. The vacuum lowers the boiling point of heavier fractions so they can be separated out easily. Unlike a storage tank, an AVT unit is expensive and difficult to replace.

As the name indicates, the AVT-6 has a capacity of 6 million tons a year, and the Moscow refinery had two of them for a total capacity of 12 million tons. But a strike earlier this month damaged the first AVT-6, so the latest strike may have put the refinery’s entire capacity out of action. The AVT was developed in Germany, and Russia was reportedly reliant on the Germans for spare parts. Sanctions will make repairs slower and more difficult.

If either of the AVT-6 units should still be functioning, this will be difficult to hide. A repeat visit by Ukrainian drones would be inevitable.

Meanwhile the refinery has been burning fiercely and Moscow’s residents have complained of “black rain” of oil droplets across a wide area. The full damage is not yet known.

Fire Point say they are ramping up production to 200 FP-1 and FP-2 drones per day, enough for an attack on this scale daily. And at a reported $50k apiece, the entire attack cost about as much as 4 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Fire Point are already using the Moscow attack in their marketing at Eurosatory.

This attack represents a milestone in Ukrainian drone capability, an indicator of their long-range strike power. While subsequent attacks may not be as video-friendly, they may be equally damaging to Russia. Fuel rationing was already in effect across Moscow and St. Petersburg before the strike, and the steady erosion of refining capacity will worsen matters.

Ukraine is starting to flex its muscles as a drone superpower. And other countries, who may previously have envied Russian air defence resources, may now be wondering how they would fare in a full-scale drone war.