Real

• This would not be the first time Marvel has experienced big leaks that turned out to be real this year for one of its blockbusters. Most notably, two different Spider-Man: Brand New Day trailers leaked before release, and they were almost identical, with only a few edits. Some images leaked as well.
• It is hard for AI to generate continuous scenes, and this is a long one that demands at least some consistency across its cuts.
• The characters shown are in their “confirmed” looks, or others that have been previously leaked ahead of this.
• We know Sentinels are definitely part of Avengers: Doomsday in a big battle, given the official trailer we saw.

Fake

• What I would consider the biggest point of evidence that this is not real is the fact that every copy of this I saw yesterday is still online right now. Many (mostly random) accounts posted the video and said things like “I’ll be taking this down soon,” but they didn’t, and nor did Disney. To think that this is a real leak featuring the entire cast that Disney is just shrugging its shoulders about and leaving it online seems highly improbable.
• I mean, this is so comically blurry that you do not have to worry about hunting down any of the telltale signs of AI missing details, because there is nothing even close to detail in any of these shots at all. Granted, leaks can look this terrible, and unfinished VFX can make things worse, but this creates a lot of leeway for AI creation.
• You can also explain away a lot of the “accurate” costuming by the fact that it’s either based on things we’ve already seen in official trailers, or in some cases, using concept art that could just be…fed into the AI, a fake leak “confirming” what might have been a different fake leak.
• I find it convenient that the most significant scene leaked from this entire movie is the entire cast assembling in what is “the shot” of the film, the way we’ve seen in other Avengers movies.

I’m leaning toward fake, though I’m not sure it matters because the gang fighting Sentinels is not really anything we don’t already know. Though I suppose in the trailer, we only had it confirmed that it was the X-Men, not everyone. It does make sense though, that Doom needs some sort of “army,” and this could be it.

But yeah, hundreds of copies of this online without Disney doing anything significant about it? That’s the part I don’t buy the most.

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