MLB Best Home Run Bets

Jackson Chourio (Milwaukee Brewers - OF)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+329) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Brady Singer is a punching bag for hitters this year. Among tonight’s probable starters, Singer has the third-highest home runs allowed per nine innings (2.32 HR/9) in 2026.

The 29-year-old righty has allowed 17 home runs in 14 starts in 2026, coughing up at least one in 10 of those starts, and permitting multiple homers in five turns. Singer has allowed nine homers in six starts at home, avoiding a home run in only one of those starts, and allowing multiple homers in three of them.

The Brewers should take him deep at least once, but multiple players could launch home runs against him tonight. Picking one hitter from the Brewers was challenging, but Jackson Chourio was the top pick.

The 22-year-old right-handed-hitting outfielder has hit 10 home runs in 41 games and 192 plate appearances this season. Chourio has hit seven of his 10 homers in 136 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this year.

The toolsy outfielder also has fantastic batted-ball data. Among 259 qualified hitters in 2026, Chourio is tied for 20th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.6%), 29th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (14.1%), tied for 34th in hard-hit rate (48.8%), tied for 21st in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.8 mph) and tied for 135th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (33.6%).

Chourio’s likelihood of hitting a home run tonight is also enhanced by where he’s playing. Great American Ball Park’s 118 park factor for homers since 2025 is tied for the third-highest mark since 2025. Chourio should take advantage of his plus matchup and park factors tonight and hit a home run.

Alec Burleson (St. Louis Cardinals - 1B)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425) at theScore Bet

Alec Burleson hit a career-high 21 home runs in 152 games and 595 plate appearances in 2024 before dipping to 18 home runs in 139 games and 546 plate appearances in 2025. Burleson has bounced back with 13 homers in 74 games and 326 plate appearances this year, putting him on pace for a new career high.

The left-handed-hitting first baseman has a career-high 49.6% pull rate and a career-high 14.1% home runs per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) this year. His 91.6 mph average exit velocity in 2026 is only 0.1 mph behind his career high 91.7 mph on only 39 batted balls in his MLB debut in 2022.

Burleson’s batted-ball data is mostly good this year. Among 259 qualified hitters this year, Burleson is 40th in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.4%), tied for 74th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (11.2%), 40th in hard-hit rate (48.3%), 39th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.7 mph) and tied for 125th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (33.9%).

Burleson has drilled 12 of his 13 home runs this year in 225 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, and he’s hit five in 113 plate appearances against righties at home.

He has a desirable matchup to hit a home run tonight. Merrill Kelly has allowed 15 home runs in 12 starts this year, coughing up at least one in nine starts. He has allowed multiple homers in four starts, including in three of his last four starts. Burleson should connect for a home run tonight.