Elon Musk has reportedly held discussions about potentially merging Tesla with SpaceX, as betting markets and Wall Street expect a future tie-up between his trillion-dollar businesses following the aerospace giant’s anticipated stock debut.
Wall Street has speculated whether the world’s richest person will consider a tie-up for his two most valuable companies.
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Musk has discussed the possibility of combining SpaceX and Tesla, CNBC reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the talks and a Tesla employee who claimed a transaction has been openly discussed internally.
WedBush Securities analyst Dan Ives, in an X post following SpaceX’s IPO filing last week, said his firm has placed odds of 80% or higher for Tesla and SpaceX merging in 2027, additionally writing in a note the “groundwork [was] already in place for both operations to become one organization.”
Musk’s goal of controlling more of the AI market could make a SpaceX-Tesla merger his “holy grail,” Ives said, adding a deal could finalize in the first half of next year.
Ross Gerber, chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, argued SpaceX would likely end up taking control of Tesla rather than the two combining as equals, mirroring xAI’s $33 billion deal to acquire X last year, further folding Musk’s companies into “one ball of Elon.”
Neither Tesla nor SpaceX immediately responded to Forbes’ requests for comment.
Kalshi has placed 52% odds on a Tesla and SpaceX merger before May 1, 2027, as of Wednesday, with lower odds projected for before April 1, 2027 (45%), and before March 1, 2027 (37%). Betting odds briefly spiked to as high as 76.7% ahead of SpaceX’s IPO filing earlier this month, and rival Polymarket has placed 32% odds of a merger before the end of 2026.
When SpaceX debuts on the Nasdaq. SpaceX’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission to take the company public was disclosed last week, which could allow for a stock listing under the ticker SPCX as early as June 12. SpaceX is reportedly targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, potentially surpassing the all-time IPO valuation record of $1.7 trillion set by Saudi Aramco in 2019.
Musk is the world’s richest person by far, with a net worth of $837.9 billion as of Wednesday, according to Forbes’ Real-Time Billionaires list. He’s expected to become the world’s first trillionaire following SpaceX’s IPO, as Forbes estimates Musk’s SpaceX stake at nearly 40%, valuing his equity at about $600 billion and potentially swelling his fortune above $1.4 trillion. Musk is also set to become the first chief executive of two companies with a market capitalization of $1 trillion, as Tesla is worth just over $1.6 trillion as of Wednesday.
Analysts have speculated whether Musk would combine Tesla with SpaceX, even before the rocket firm acquired his xAI in February. SpaceX has discussed a possible tie-up with Tesla and some investors have pushed the idea, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, who noted the companies could decide to remain separate. Musk’s companies have shared personnel and pooled resources for years: Tesla said in January it invested $2 billion in xAI, and SpaceX revealed in its IPO filing that it bought $697 million worth of Tesla’s battery energy storage systems in 2024 and 2025 to power data centers used by xAI. SpaceX also disclosed a $131 million purchase of Tesla’s Cybertrucks in 2025.
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