Gunnar Henderson has muscled up for nine home runs this year, and he could launch another tonight.
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Oneil Cruz was out last night, so his home run prop was a no bet. Max Muncy didn’t homer against homer-prone Chris Paddack or Miami’s bullpen, dropping the MLB best home run bets to 5-17 for the year, with two no bets.
Fortunately, the winners have been fruitful. Readers and gamblers who’ve bet $100 on each of the suggested best home run bets at the listed odds are up $645 for the season. Given the long-shot nature of home run bets, the season’s profit can dry up quickly with a cold streak.
Having said that, a home run from either or both of the forthcoming players can swell the season’s profits and provide more room for error. Two left-handed batters in plus matchups have the most appealing home run bets for Tuesday night.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400) at theScore Bet
Gunnar Henderson doesn’t have the most well-rounded offensive profile this year, but his power has shown up in a big way. Henderson has hit nine home runs with a career-high 16.9-degree launch angle, a career-high 12.7% barrel rate, a 19.0% line-drive rate, a career-high 41.8% fly-ball rate and a career-high 53.2% pull rate in 28 games and 132 plate appearances in 2026. It appears he’s selling out for power, and it’s resulted in six home runs against righties in 97 plate appearances, five homers in 71 plate appearances at home and four home runs in 71 plate appearances against righties at home.
Henderson has done an excellent job of tapping into his fence-clearing power at his homer-friendly home ballpark when he’s had the platoon advantage. He’s belted 31 home runs in 529 plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home since 2024. Oriole Park at Camden Yards is tied for the fifth-highest park factor for homers (114) since 2024, and it’s had a 123 park factor for homers since undergoing renovations before the 2025 season.
The homer-friendly hitting conditions in Baltimore are a nightmare for Kai-Wei Teng and Houston’s relievers. Teng’s 1.62 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) allowed this year are the fourth most among tonight’s probable starting pitchers. Additionally, the relievers for the Astros have allowed an MLB-high 1.83 HR/9 in 2026.
Teng and Houston’s relievers also have eye-catching batted-ball profiles. Teng has allowed a 39.0% fly-ball rate, 18.8% home runs per fly-ball rate and 52.4% pull rate this year, and the club’s bullpen has the third-highest fly-ball rate (44.9%), the highest home run per fly-ball rate (15.6%) and the second-highest pull rate (45.3%) this year. Henderson has a golden opportunity to tap into his pull-side power and yank a home run into the seats tonight.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+325) at theScore Bet
Juan Soto has hit only one home run in 13 games and 55 plate appearances this year. The left-handed-hitting outfielder’s batted-ball profile has some encouraging numbers, though.
Among 341 hitters with at least 25 batted-ball events this season, Soto is tied for 48th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.1%), tied for 55th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (13.3%), tied for 63rd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.7 mph) and tied for 58th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (39.5%).
Soto has a perfect opportunity to find his homer stroke tonight. Zack Littell’s 3.96 HR/9 allowed this year is the most among tonight’s probable starters. Littell avoided a home run in only one of his five appearances (four starts) this year, and he’s coughed up two, three, two and four homers in his other four appearances.
Since last year, Littell has allowed 25 home runs (2.24 HR/9) to 417 left-handed batters. The Nationals also have a homer-prone bullpen. Washington’s relievers have allowed the third-most home runs per nine innings (1.56 HR/9).
Littell and Washington’s bullpen are just what Soto needs to reach the seats. Soto’s home run prop is one of the best on tonight’s MLB slate.
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