Workers look at the supply of chemical fertilizers at an agricultural supply store in Neijiang, China. Beijing has restricted fertilizer exports to prioritize domestic food supply. (Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

NurPhoto via Getty Images

Recently, American families have been facing higher grocery and gas bills, prompting criticism of President Trump and his administration—with some going so far as to even cast blame on farmers, cattlemen, and fertilizer producers.

The actual drivers of today’s affordability concerns, however, are foreign adversaries who stand to benefit if Americans lose faith in President Trump and his America First agenda. If Iran, China, and others are successful, Americans will have much more to worry about than slightly higher grocery prices.

President Trump and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins have prioritized food affordability. Those efforts deserve support, and calming affordability challenges will be a political win for the Trump administration. But if Washington wants to bring down food inflation for families, it must take into account the downstream implications of the current global unrest on critical inputs for America’s food supply.

Fertilizer is essential to food production, and when that production becomes more costly, food becomes less affordable for families. Today’s squeeze is due to a global system under strain from war, energy shocks, shipping disruptions, export bans, refinery constraints, sulfur shortages, high borrowing costs, and drought. Not American fertilizer production.

Food production relies on nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium in fertilizer to grow the corn, wheat, rice, and vegetables that families across the country count on. Nitrogen fertilizers are made by converting natural gas into ammonia. Potash-based fertilizers are mined. Phosphate fertilizers require phosphate rock, ammonia, and sulfuric acid.

Each of these three fertilizer components is facing distinct supply chain pressures, all within global markets that are adding to concerns about affordability for American consumers and farmers alike.

The availability of fertilizer ultimately reflects the cost of energy, shipping, financing, and weather-related disruptions long before the product ever reaches a farmer's co-op.

Many Americans know the Strait of Hormuz as an oil chokepoint, but it’s also the world’s most important fertilizer route. In 2024, roughly 30% of global fertilizer trade passed through the Strait alongside large volumes of LNG and oil. Gulf countries supply 36% of the world's urea and 29% of its ammonia, the base for all nitrogen fertilizers.

In late February, traffic through the Strait dropped from more than 100 ships per day to just a few within a matter of weeks, spiking energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs.

Most people don’t think much about sulfur, but it’s a crucial component of phosphate fertilizer. Sulfur is a byproduct of petroleum refining, so when refinery outages or international sanctions tighten sulfur supplies, phosphate fertilizer becomes more expensive to produce. Agricultural producers must absorb those costs, which are ultimately passed on to consumers.

China is compounding the affordability problem by limiting fertilizer exports to protect its own farmers, with up to 40 million metric tons of last year's exports potentially withheld from global markets.

And then there’s Russia, a leading exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizer, that has seen its exports drop sharply under international sanctions tied to the war in Ukraine. The war has also damaged Russia’s production capabilities. A a single Ukrainian drone attack in February on the Dorogobuzh plant cut roughly 5% of Russia's total fertilizer production, 11% of its ammonium nitrate capacity and 9% of its nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium output. Russian ammonia exports are more than 80% below pre-war levels.

Nitrogen fertilizer costs in the Corn Belt rose as much as 25% for anhydrous ammonia and more than 40% for urea after Iran escalated tensions with the U.S. That has forced difficult tradeoffs. Cutting nitrogen applications may save money currently, but it risks lower yields come harvest time.

Weather adds another layer of uncertainty to food affordability. As of late April, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed more than 60% of the Lower 48 in drought conditions. Fertilizer performs best when crops have adequate moisture, and farmers dealing with dry soil, high diesel costs, and elevated interest rates have to decide whether to plant fewer acres, switch crops, or risk lower yields.

Blaming U.S. fertilizer producers for rising prices won’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reverse China's export controls, create more sulfur availability, rebuild Russian ammonia supplies or make it rain.

Public officials need to treat food security as a national security issue. By protecting key shipping routes for fertilizer, ammonia, sulfur, and LNG—not just oil—and pressing China to stop imposing export restrictions, President Trump can improve affordability for American families.

To further what President Trump has already done to improve food affordability, his administration should expand domestic and allied capacity across refining, sulfur recovery, ammonia, phosphate, and potash production. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins’s targeted relief for farmers and plans to increase access to fertilizers are critical steps in the right direction.

Ahead of the midterms, when affordability will be top of mind for Americans as they head to the ballot box, the Trump administration is right to prioritize these comprehensive protections.

Food affordability is no longer set by what happens in America's Heartland alone. It’s shaped by Persian Gulf gas fields, Chinese export terminals, refinery sulfur units, Mississippi River barge schedules, and weather forecasts.