An American Airlines jet is parked at a gate while passengers and cargo are handled. Air cargo move either in the "belly" of passenger jets or on freighters — dedicated cargo planes

Universal Images Group via Getty Images

The value of air cargo was worth a record $17.51 billion more than ocean freight in February, according to my analysis of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data available.

Prior to six months ago, ocean cargo was always more valuable.

But, driven by three primary factors, February was the fifth month in the last six that air cargo was more valuable. I wrote about the first time it happened last year.

In February, air cargo accounted for 37.07% of the $448.69 billion in two-way U.S. trade by all modes. Ocean cargo accounted for 33.17% in February while land-based cargo, essentially cargo sent via truck, rail or pipeline between the United States and its USMCA partners, Canada and Mexico, was responsible for 29.76%.

What a difference two years can make. In February two years ago, ocean cargo was $57.98 billion more valuable that air cargo.

What has changed, what has turned a $57.98 billion disadvantage to a $17.51 billion advantage?

Before I get to that, it’s important to understand a few things when comparing modes of transportation.

In the air cargo and ocean cargo industries, they largely focus on weight, or tonnage. That how they charge. But comparing the modes to each other by tonnage make no sense.

Exports and imports fly because they are either lightweight, extremely valuable, time-sensitive or some combination of those characteristics. This is the most expensive way to move cargo. Think diamonds, pharmaceuticals, fresh fish.

Broadly speaking, ocean cargo is reserved for heavier, less valuable, non-time-sensitive cargo, or some combination. Think cars, oil, grains, steel.

So, ocean cargo will always far outweigh air cargo. Further, there is no data released for land-based cargo. Land cargo will often more closely appriximate ocean cargo – heavier, less valuable, less time-sensitive – with the obvious exception of fresh fruit and vegetables.

So, what has changed, what has turned a $57.98 billion disadvantage when compariing air cargo to ocean cargo to a $17.51 billion advantage?

Three things that surround us.

• Artificial intelligence: Investment in the computer hardware required by massive data centers being built with great haste across the country by the world’s largest tech firms has led to a surge in imports, largely from Taiwan. For the first time ever, the broad computer category (HS 8471) was the top-ranked U.S. import, more valuable than cars or oil or cell phones. And more and more are using Gemini, Chat GPT, Claude and Perplexity at work and home.
• Weight-loss drugs: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have blockbuster GLP-1 drugs on their hands, drugs initially created for diabetes but now being used to attack a nation desparate to get control over its waistline. The surge in drugs like Osempic, Weegovy and others, and the AI-connected computer hardware, led Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport to rank as the nation’s top port in 2025, ahead of hundreds of other U.S. airports, searports and border crossings. You don’t have to talk to too many people to find someone relying on a GPT-1 drug to fit into those pants or that dress.
• Gold: When there is economic or political uncertainly or both, the price of gold rises. The less certain the times, the faster it rises. Gold had its best year last year since 1979. Often that means gold needs to move to cover or meet demand. More often than not, that means moving gold between New York’s JFK International Airport, near where a small but not-insignificant amount of gold is stored, and Switzerland, which serves as a transshipment hub and a processor of gold. JFK was the nation’s second-ranked port, marking the first year two airports had ranked first and second for cargo value.

So, yes, these things are all around us. We are using AI to write software or determine what that little ache is likely to be, taking weight-loss drugs to try to once again fit into that dress or those pants, and feeling a little less certain about the world around us, from the grocery store to the Middle East.

Which led me to wonder: How different are the top five exports and imports from a decade ago? Before most of us really knew anything about AI. Before we knew the acronym GLP-1. Before wars springing up around the globe and runaway prices confronting us at the grocery store.