Jaafar Jackson in "Michael."
Lionsgate/Glen Wilson
Michael, the biopic about the late King of Pop Michael Jackson, is looking to seize the domestic box office crown in its opening weekend from reigning champ The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, but more stars need to align for the film to be a financial success.
Directed by Antoine Fuqua, Michael stars Michael Jackson’s nephew/Jermaine Jackson’s son, Jaafar Jackson, in the title role. The story chronicles the rise of the music icon from his days as a young singer (Juliano Krue Valdi) with his brothers in the Jackson 5 to his rise to the top of the pop charts with his blockbuster albums Off the Wall and Thriller.
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Michael also stars Colman Domingo and Nia Long as the singer’s parents, Joe and Katherine Jackson.
Michael is tracking to open with $65 million to $70 million in 3,900 North American theaters in its opening weekend frame, according to Deadline. Of that theater count, 1,900 venues have IMAX or premium large format screens, the trade publication reported, which will no doubt help the film’s box office bottom line. Variety is also forecasting a $65 million to $70 million opening.
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As healthy as the projected domestic opening number is, it is far below prognosticator Box Office Pro’s long-range forecast from March 27, which pegged an opening in the neighborhood of $85 million to $90 million.
The production budget for Michael, according to Deadline, is $200 million before prints and advertising costs. The upside for Michael’s studio, Lionsgate, is that the biopic is also projected by Deadline to earn $75 million to $80 million from 82 international territories this weekend.
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As such, if Deadline’s $150 million worldwide projection pans out — and the standard half amount of the gross goes to theater owners — the opening weekend will only cover $75 million of the film’s $200 million production cost before marketing.
The trade publication noted that Michael was initially set to be released on April 18, 2025, before being moved back to Oct. 3, 2025.
The review embargo lifted for Michael on Tuesday morning, and it became apparent from the get-go that the film wasn’t being received with very much enthusiasm from critics.
As of the publication of this report, Michael is standing on wobbly legs with a 34% “rotten” critics’ score based on 96 reviews. Some of the criticism stems from how the film sanitizes Michael Jackson’s complicated legacy.
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Among the more damning headlines are ‘Michael’ Review: Frustrating Michael Jackson Biopic Makes You Want to Scream from The Wrap; while the U.K.’s Independent header declares, The Michael Jackson Biopic is a Ghoulish, Soulless Cash Grab – Review.
Of course, scathing reviews rarely influence the outcome of any film at the box office, so it will be interesting to see how much of an impact the opening salvos launched at Michael will damage the film, if at all, during its opening weekend.
Rated PG-13, Michael is playing in Thursday previews before opening in theaters nationwide on Friday.
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