Gunnar Henderson loves to hit home runs against righties in his homer-friendly ballpark.
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The MLB best home run bets drought came to an end on Wednesday, when Drake Baldwin launched a home run at +470 odds. Sadly, Jackson Merrill couldn’t add to the fun with a homer. Nevertheless, the season record for best home run props sits at 4-15, with a no bet for a player who didn’t start, and the picks are up $370 for any readers and gamblers who bet $100 on all of the suggested home run bets at the listed odds.
As the lousy record for home run bets indicates, it’s difficult to pick winners, which is why home runs are listed at the enticing odds they are. The $370 profit to this point also illustrates that gamblers don’t need to hit many home run bets to generate a profit if they make calculated decisions and soak up value on mispriced home run lines.
A left-handed hitter who rakes at home and a power-packed, emerging outfielder facing a homer-prone bullpen that’s using an opener and a bulk reliever tonight have tantalizing betting odds for their home run props tonight. Either player ripping a home run would significantly add to the season’s profits, and both hitting one would be dreamy.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+475) at The Score Bet
Gunnar Henderson has hit seven homers in 25 games and 119 plate appearances this year. Five of his home runs have been in 92 plate appearances against righties, three have been in 58 plate appearances at home and three have been in 48 plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home.
The Orioles renovated Oriole Park at Camden Yards before the 2025 season, and it has the second-highest park factor for home runs (121) since last season. Henderson has crushed 12 home runs in 269 plate appearances against righties at home since 2025. Furthermore, he already enjoyed the hitting conditions at home with the platoon advantage before the renovations, as evidenced by Henderson hitting 18 homers in 255 plate appearances against righties at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in 2024.
Henderson’s 2026 batted-ball data ranges from good to excellent. Among 281 qualified hitters this season, Henderson is tied for 118th in barrels per plate appearance rate (5.9%), 105th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (9.9%) and tied for 39th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.4 mph).
Henderson’s matchup is adequate tonight. Brayan Bello has allowed 1.45 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) and surrendered a home run in three of his four starts this season. Moreover, Boston’s relievers have allowed the sixth-highest home runs per nine innings (1.30) this year. Henderson has a good shot at delivering a home run and cashing his home run prop tonight.
Everson Pereira has above-average power and faces a homer-prone bullpen tonight.
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Over 0.5 Home Runs (+540) at FanDuel Sportsbook
PJ Poulin will open for the Nationals, and Miles Mikolas and Riley Cornelio, a minor-league pitcher who hasn’t pitched in the Majors, are candidates to work behind Poulin in bulk-reliever roles. Poulin has yielded 2.13 HR/9, and Mikolas has coughed up 2.75 HR/9 in 12.2 and 19.2 innings this season. Cornelio has allowed 1.34 HR/9 in 12 career Triple-A starts, and Washington’s relievers are tied for the second-most home runs per nine innings (1.66) allowed in 2026. Multiple hitters for the White Sox should tap into their home run power tonight.
Everson Pereira has hit three home runs in 13 games and 55 plate appearances this season. He hit 21 homers in 78 games and 348 plate appearances in Triple-A last year and two more in 73 plate appearances for the Rays, and FanGraphs graded his game power 40 present and 50 future and his raw power 60 present and future on the 20-to-80 scouting scale on their 2025 graduates scouting report.
Among 324 hitters with at least 25 batted-ball events this year, Pereira is tied for 47th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.1%), 40th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (14.7%), tied for 79th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.9 mph) and fourth in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (50.0%). Pereira has above-average power, and he’s lifting the ball, with a 14.9-degree launch angle, 20.6% line-drive rate, 38.2% fly-ball rate and 23.1% home run per fly-ball rate. Pereira should take advantage of a mouthwatering matchup for hitting homers, and his +540 odds make his home run prop one of the best home run bets on tonight’s MLB slate.
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