Immigration Surge Did Not Help U.S.-Born Workers

Under the Trump administration, ICE and Border Patrol agents surged into Minneapolis, Los Angeles and other major cities. Economists Chloe N. East and Elizabeth Cox at the University of Colorado Boulder examined the impact of immigration enforcement actions in a new paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research. While immigration enforcement has increased nationwide during the Trump administration, the researchers compared areas that “experienced a sudden, large increase in ICE arrests” to places that did not.

One research finding is unsurprising: Among individuals identified as likely undocumented immigrants not physically removed from the labor market, ICE activity produced a “chilling effect” of interacting with ICE, leading to a 4% reduction in employment. According to the research, in an average area, approximately six undocumented immigrants dropped out of the labor force for every one ICE arrest. That may help explain why employers often express difficulties in finding workers well beyond the number of people arrested or deported.

The research finds ICE arrests have not helped and, indeed, likely harmed U.S.-born workers, including those with a high school education or less. “There is a negative and significant impact on employment of U.S.-born male workers with at most a high-school education, who work in likely affected sectors,” according to the study. “This is consistent with a model where undocumented immigrants and U.S.-born workers are complements, rather than substitutes for each other in the labor market.”

There are additional disappointing results for administration officials, such as White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, the architect of the Trump administration’s immigration policies, to ponder: “We see no evidence that employers increase wages to attract U.S.-born workers to fill these jobs in the face of immigration enforcement,” write East and Cox. “Instead, our results are consistent with employers reducing labor demand overall, including for jobs more often taken by U.S.-born workers.”

The results indicate mass deportation is not a viable economic policy for improving the welfare of U.S. workers. “Our findings directly inform a central policy justification for heightened immigration enforcement—that it expands job opportunities for U.S.-born workers,” according to East and Cox. “We find no evidence supporting this argument, and, instead document negative spillovers for less-educated U.S.-born men, suggesting that enforcement may contract, rather than reallocate, labor demand in affected sectors.”

Other research and economic indicators support these findings. A study by Javier Cravino (University of Michigan), Andrei A. Levchenko (University of Michigan), Francesc Ortega (Notre Dame), and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (University of Texas at Austin) found that achieving the Trump administration’s goals of mass deportation would reduce U.S.-born real wages in every state and raise consumer prices.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in February 2026 a decline of 1,008,000 foreign-born workers since a peak in March 2025, according to a National Foundation for American Policy analysis. “There is no evidence that U.S.-born workers have benefited from the decline in the number of foreign-born workers,” NFAP notes. “The unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers was 4.7% in February 2026 compared to 4.4% in February 2025.” U.S. workers have not reentered the labor market in response to fewer foreign-born workers. The labor force participation rate for the U.S.-born aged 16 and older dropped from 61.4% in February 2025 to 61.0% in February 2026.

Why ICE Immigration Tactics Have Not Helped U.S. Workers

Economist Chloe East explains why U.S.-born workers ended up worse off after ICE arrests. “The conventional wisdom is that immigrants and native-born workers compete directly for the same jobs—so that each immigrant hire meant one fewer opportunity for someone born in the United States,” said East in an interview. “But a large body of economic research has challenged this zero-sum view. . . . In reality, undocumented immigrants often work in different jobs than the U.S.-born, complementing, rather than replacing them. Immigrants also boost demand by spending on housing, food and local services, which supports job creation across the economy.”

East found that in sectors struggling to find immigrant workers due to heightened ICE activity, employers reduced hiring for other jobs typically filled by U.S.-born workers. “This is particularly pronounced in the construction sector,” she said. “For example, when construction companies cannot find immigrants to work as construction site laborers, they will build fewer new homes and hire fewer electricians and managers, which are jobs typically taken by U.S.-born workers.”

The research finds that the immigration of some people does not mean other people are worse off because everyone must battle for pieces of a fixed economic pie. According to Chloe East, “Over time, immigrants contribute to the country’s fiscal health, strengthening the broader economic environment in which U.S.-born workers live and work.”