Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen could rejoin the ongoing conflict with the U.S. and Israel by potentially targeting the Bab al-Mandeb strait, the critical waterway connecting the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea, according to multiple reports that cited Iranian state-affiliated media—as Iran cuts off talks with the United States.
The Bab al-Mandeb, the strait dividing Yemen from Africa, seen in a satellite image.
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Iranian news agency Tasnim reported the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. could end if Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon continues, and the country’s allies in Yemen could block the Bab al-Mandeb to “punish” Israel.
In an English language post on X in April, Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said the U.S. opposition “views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz”—the key oil-transport route Iran effectively closed after the war began, and the U.S. began blockading in April.
Although Iran does not border the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, Yemen does, and Iran is closely allied with the Houthis, the Yemeni militant group that previously conducted dozens of strikes against Israel-linked vessels in the Red Sea in 2023 and 2024 in response to the war in Gaza.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused global oil prices to skyrocket and has pushed average gasoline prices in the U.S. above $4 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data.
Israel began fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon after the group came to Iran’s aid when the war started on Feb. 28. Since peace negotiations began, Iran has insisted a ceasefire in Lebanon was a prerequisite for continued talks to end the wider war. Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in April, which was later extended. However, Israel restarted fighting in Lebanon against Hezbollah over the weekend—pushing ground troops to their furthest point in the country in 26 years, the Associated Press reported. On Monday, Israel began air strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted these actions were in self-defense after Hezbollah targeted northern Israel with rocket strikes. In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was “unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” adding in a statement on X the U.S. and Israel would be “responsible for the consequences of any violation.”
Less than a day after President Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began, Saudi officials were already concerned Iran could retaliate by targeting the Bab al-Mandeb—the other major waterway Saudi Arabia uses to ship oil, the Wall Street Journal reported in April. However, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told Forbes in April that Trump wanted the Strait of Hormuz “fully open to facilitate the free flow of energy,” and the government was in “frequent contact” with gulf allies. Unnamed Saudi energy officials also told the Journal they had commitments from the Houthis not to attack Saudi ships passing through the Bab al-Mandeb.
“Today, the unified command of the Resistance front views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz,” Velayati wrote. This could refer to Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” the loosely aligned groups of militias and other groups supported by Iran, which include the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Kata’ib Hezbollah in Iraq. “If the White House dares to repeat its foolish mistakes, it will soon realize that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single move,” Velayati added.
The closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait could further disrupt global trade, blocking yet another chokepoint for the petroleum exporting nations to ship oil and natural gas out of the region. An estimated 4.1 million barrels of petroleum products traveled through the strait per day in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. In comparison, about 20 million barrels traveled through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is one of the alternative routes for petroleum exporters to ship oil to Asia. About 7 million barrels of oil are now shipped to the Saudi Arabian city of Yanbu, a port on the Red Sea, through a pipeline, ABC News reported citing data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler. The oil that reaches Yanbu then transits through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz comes only days after Saudi Arabia announced it restored full pumping capacity through the pipeline to prewar levels—about seven million barrels per day—after the pipeline came under attack from likely Iranian missiles and drones.
The Houthis have not attacked vessels in the Bab al-Mandeb yet, instead targeting Israel with missiles, but analysts who spoke to Politico and Al Jazeera predicted the group could start targeting ships in the strait, similar to the campaign they undertook in recent years during the Gaza war. Earlier in March, Iran’s state-affiliated Tasnim News Agency quoted an Iranian military source that threatened “insecurity” in the Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea if the U.S. struck Iran’s Kharg Island. Outside of oil, the Bab al-Mandeb, located on the sea route to Asia after passing through the Suez Canal, sees about 12% of all global trade, the Associated Press reported.
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