Canada has tremendous energy potential. Much of that potential was channeled into a single bilateral relationship with the United States. As that relationship erodes, new opportunities arise.
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Canada’s first-ever Investment Summit is scheduled for mid-September. The aim is to attract global capital for “nation-building” projects across energy, infrastructure, and critical minerals, demonstrating Ottawa’s efforts to expand the country’s role as a global energy supplier.
The timing matters. Supply instability due to broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is reshaping energy flows. Canada has the resources to play a larger role in global supply chains, but whether it can achieve this will depend on overcoming long-standing infrastructure and regulatory constraints and on adopting a more pragmatic, less ideological approach to green energy. The future of Canada as an energy superpower is in the hands of the country’s leaders.
Canada should already be an energy superpower. It holds the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves, is among the top five producers of both oil and natural gas, and is the third-largest producer of hydropower. The country also boasts significant uranium reserves, is a major nuclear energy exporter, and is positioning itself as a supplier of critical minerals.
However, all of this abundance does not translate evenly across the country. According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, “Most of Canada’s oil production (including the oil sands) and all current natural gas production occur in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), which spans the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.” Roughly 85% of Canada’s oil production comes from Alberta. Canada produces energy at scale. However, it lacks the infrastructure to respond efficiently to shifting market conditions, undermining its ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities and limiting its market access.
Another limiting factor is that the United States is Canada’s largest energy trading partner. This longstanding relationship, while beneficial to both countries in many respects, also resulted in Canadian energy export infrastructure orienting from North to South.Today, over 90% of Canada’s oil and gas exports flow to the U.S. through an extensive transboundary pipeline network. Roughly four million barrels of crude move through this network daily. Since Canada produces 4.3 million barrels a day more oil than it can process, a vast majority is transported directly to U.S. refineries, reinforcing this structural dependency.
This relationship is economically rational. The U.S. offers geographical proximity, established infrastructure, and consistent demand. However, it also limits Canada’s export flexibility, effectively anchoring it to a single market. This economic dependency also limits Canada’s ability to utilize its energy as a foreign policy tool, as the U.S. does.
Rising trade tensions following U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods have pushed Ottawa to pursue trade diversification and reduce its reliance on a single export market. The Carney cabinet has been working to position Canada as a destination for foreign direct investment . In the past year, it has secured over 20 economic and defense partnerships and $97 billion in FDI commitments.
The shift Canada is pursuing will require more than financial commitments. It will require a strategy to strengthen domestic infrastructure. This is exemplified in recent planning, including a feasibility study for an East-West pipeline that would connect Alberta’s production to Ontario markets. The Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding, signed late last year, similarly reflects efforts to expand domestic energy integration across provinces.
The same logic is being applied to electricity and LNG infrastructure. In British Columbia, several LNG projects, including LNG Canada and Woodfibre LNG, are underway. When all current projects are completed, Canada’s export capacity will reach a massive 62 bcm/year. For comparison, the USA exported 150 bcm of LNG in 2025.
The Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, boosting the project to 890,000 bpd, led by Trans Mountain Corporation, has also expanded oil export capacity to Pacific markets. With oil above $100/barrel, Canadian oil sands, profitable over $80/barrel for new projects, and boasting massive reserves, have become big money-makers. Only its pipeline throughput capacity of 5.1 mbd can limit Canadian oil exports from exploiting its 163 to 171 billion barrels of economically recoverable reserves, ranking the country 3rd or 4th in the world.
In the east, a National Energy Corridor Agreement has been secured to connect provincial electricity grids and improve cross-jurisdictional transmission.
Collectively, these projects point to a broader effort to strengthen Canada’s energy system. The aim is not only to diversify exports but to improve domestic energy integration.
This concerted activity in Canada comes at a time when global energy markets are being exposed to instability in the Middle East, driving prices up. Asia, in particular, has been greatly affected by the conflict in Iran, given its reliance on imported energy. China, Japan, and South Korea rank among the world’s largest LNG importers, with much of their supply sourced from the Middle East.
This is where Canada could play a larger role. LNG shipments from British Columbia would provide Asia with a geographically closer alternative to current suppliers, including Australia, Qatar, and U.S. Gulf Coast exporters. Canadian LNG shipments take about 10 days to reach Asia from the West Coast, compared to around 20 days from the U.S. Gulf Coast, offering speed, efficiency, and diversification in an increasingly competitive market.
As global energy systems face increasing geopolitical volatility, the demand for more resilient supply chains is rising. If Canada can keep pace, it could position itself as an alternative supplier in Asian energy markets while also attracting more global capital to its energy infrastructure. However, if U.S.-China relations deteriorate further, Washington would use all its considerable power to stop Canadian LNG from reaching China.
The Canada Investment Summit represents an effort to convert the country’s resource wealth, spanning oil and gas, critical minerals, and clean energy, into strategic and economic power, strengthening Canada’s appeal as a destination for global capital.
Ultimately, Canada’s ability to position itself as an energy superpower will depend less on its ample resources and more on whether it can overcome its infrastructure limitations, over-regulation, and a politicized obsession with green policy, all of which have frustrated its efforts in the past. This means a constructive regulatory regime that allows for exploration, production, and construction of new export infrastructure on the Canadian coasts. If successful, Canada could become an influential participant in global energy and critical minerals supply chains. In that scenario, Canada would not only expand its geopolitical relevance and clout but also unlock new pathways for investment capital seeking safe havens against the threats and instability in these vital supply chains.
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