Byron Buxton has an outstanding matchup to hit a home run today.
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Jo Adell and Mike Trout were unable to hit home runs on Monday, making them losers for the MLB best home run bets. The season’s line sits at 10-36, with two no-bets for players who didn’t start on the day their home run props were suggested.
Home run bets are justifiably priced as long-shot wagers because they’re difficult to cash. The difficulty of placing winning home run bets is a double-edged sword, as a losing record is expected, but gamblers can generate a profit with only a few winners. To that point, the season’s profits are $553 for anyone who bet $100 on each of the MLB best home run bets at the listed odds.
Two of MLB’s top home run hitters have the most appealing home run props today. Both players have betting odds above +350. They each have an excellent opportunity to homer today, and either or both doing so would help tack onto the season’s profits and provide more wiggle room to fend off an inevitable cold streak.
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+378) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Byron Buxton’s 17 home runs in 2026 are tied for the fourth-most in MLB. The toolsy outfielder has hit 16 of his 17 homers in 168 plate appearances against righties and nine of them in 82 plate appearances against righties at home.
Buxton’s batted-ball data this year is sensational. Among 261 qualified batters in 2026, Buxton is tied for fifth in barrels per plate appearance rate (12.0%), ninth in barrels per batted-ball event rate (18.5%), tied for 59th in hard-hit rate (46.4%), tied for 52nd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.4 mph) and has a 23.1-degree launch angle, tied for the sixth steepest.
Buxton has the best matchup for a home run on today’s slate. Erick Fedde’s 2.19 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) are the most among the day’s probable starters. Fedde has made seven starts and four relief appearances this year, allowing at least one home run in nine of those games, including six straight. He’s also allowed multiple homers in three appearances this year, all of which were starts.
Buxton also has a chance to go deep against Chicago’s bullpen. The relievers for the White Sox have allowed 1.09 HR/9, the 10th-highest homer rate among bullpens in 2026. Buxton should hit a home run today, and his +378 odds at DraftKings sportsbook are inviting.
Ben Rice has a chance to hit his 18th homer of the season in his homer-friendly home ballpark.
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Over 0.5 Home Runs (+414) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ben Rice is also tied for fourth in homers this year, hitting 17. The left-handed-hitting first baseman has hit 12 of his 17 home runs in 162 plate appearances against righties and five of them in 61 plate appearances against righties at home.
Unsurprisingly given his homer total, Rice has crushed the ball. Among 261 qualified batters this season, Rice is tied for 10th in barrels per plate appearance rate (11.4%), 12th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (17.8%), 17th in hard-hit rate (52.1%), tied for 29th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.2 mph) and 16th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (41.8%), with a 13.6-degree launch angle.
Rice’s matchup isn’t perfect, but it’s not too shabby. Gavin Williams has allowed 1.06 HR/9 in 12 starts this year, allowing at least one home run in seven of his starts and permitting two in two of them. Both of the starts he allowed a pair of homers were on the road, and Williams has yielded six homers in six road starts. Williams has also allowed 20 homers at 1.31 HR/9 to 546 left-handed batters faced since last season. Cleveland’s bullpen has also allowed 1.02 HR/9 this season.
Rice’s odds to hit a home run today are also enhanced by playing at home. The 115 park factor for homers at Yankee Stadium since 2025 is tied for the fourth-highest mark. Left-handed hitters specifically have had a 117 park factor for homers at Yankee Stadium since last year. Rice should reach the seats and cash in on his +414 odds to hit a home run today.
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