Duren's Playoffs To Forget

Duren averaged a career-high 19.5 points to go with 10.5 rebounds In only 28.2 minutes per game with the Pistons this past season. He shot 65.0% overall and 74.7% from the free-throw line, but he did not attempt a single three-pointer all year.

The Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers took advantage of Duren's lack of range in the playoffs. He averaged only 10.2 points and 8.5 rebounds in 30.1 minutes per game across those two seven-game series. His scoring drop-off between the regular season and playoffs was one of the biggest ever for a player in an All-Star season, per NBA stat great Keerthika Uthayakumar.

Had Duren continued averaging a nightly 20-10 in the playoffs, he might have a real case for a 25% max or even a 30% max. However, the way he got exposed in the playoffs would make a 30% max deal risky, particularly with Cunningham already on one.

Ausar Thompson also becomes extension-eligible this offseason, so the Pistons may be on the verge of locking up their long-term core within the next year or so. That's why they need to tread cautiously with both Duren and Thompson rather than handing either one a blank check.

Thompson and Duren are both total non-spacers on offense, which allows opponents to ignore them out on the perimeter and send extra help at Cunningham. Tobias Harris had a great start to the playoffs before disappearing at the end of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, but he's also an unrestricted free agent this summer. If the Pistons don't re-sign him, they might not have an obvious way to replace him.

If the Pistons aren't convinced that at least one of Thompson or Duren will drastically improve their shooting range, they may always have questions about the viability of their offense in the playoffs. Teams will continue to sag off Thompson and ignore Duren unless he's screening or is fighting for position near the basket.

Only 49 of Duren’s 914 total field-goal attempts between the regular season and the playoffs came beyond 10 feet from the basket. That's undoubtedly one of the top highlights in any opposing scouting report.

When teams aren't as locked into their opponents' tendencies on a night-to-night basis in the regular season, an offensively limited player such as Duren can still have plenty of success. But when the playoffs begin and teams begin devising opponent-specific gameplans, Duren will remain a focal point as a way to choke off Detroit's offense.

Prior to Duren being named to an All-NBA team, ESPN’s Bobby Marks suggested a five-year, $180 million framework for his next contract. That would be nearly $60 million shy of a 25% max and $107 million less than a 30% max.

While that may be more in line with his on-court value than a full 30% max is, the All-NBA nod gives Duren's agent more ammunition in contract negotiations.

The NBA's 65-Game Rule Is To Blame

Duren finished with the second-fewest votes of any All-NBA honoree, ahead of only Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren. Had the NBA not enacted a rule a few years ago that requires players to play in 65 games to be eligible for end-of-season honors such as the All-NBA team, Duren likely wouldn't have made it at all.

The NBA approved Cunningham and Luka Dončić for award eligibility due to "extraordinary circumstances," but it denied the challenge from Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards, who finished with only 61 games played. Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (64 games), Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (62 games) and Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (60 games) were all ineligible, as were Stephen Curry (43 games) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (36 games).

Even if the 65-game rule weren’t in effect, Curry and Antetokounmpo likely wouldn’t have made the cut. Voters often prioritize a combination of availability and production, and they didn't play in enough games to challenge someone with 60-plus. But the NBA not allowing voters to decide whether 60 games of Edwards was more impactful than 70 games of Duren is what got the Pistons into this mess in the first place.

Perhaps Duren would have still received an All-NBA nod even if all of those players were eligible. Edwards would have been the only shoo-in among that group. That's still one too many maybes when $50 million is at stake.

Since the NBA introduced the second apron in 2023, teams have largely become more cost-conscious. Any big-money contract that goes south effectively ends a team's title hopes. If the Pistons sign Duren to a max or near-max deal and he continues getting outplayed by Paul Reed in the playoffs, that'll be a problem.

Duren’s All-NBA nod might make it that much harder for the Pistons not to overpay him. Both the Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls might hand him big-money offer sheets if talks break down with Detroit. But if the Pistons pay him anywhere close to a 30% max contract, it could put a hard cap on their ceiling.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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