Exports of gold, mostly bound for Switzerland and the United Kingdom, skyrocketed in the first quarter of 2026, the primary factor on the export side in the decreased U.S. deficit.

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The 2026 U.S. merchandise trade deficit fell to its lowest level since the first quarter of 2020, as exports increased 15.37% and imports fell 13.89%, according to my analysis of Census Bureau data released yesterday. Overall U.S. trade is down also, off 3.50%, not unsual in those rare cases when the deficit declines.

The decrease in the U.S. deficit is largely a response to where the country was in the first quarter of last year. Then, the deficit swelled to $425.49 billion as shippers worldwide rushed to cross the U.S. border in anticipation of what would become President Trump’s April 2 announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs against the world.

The $213.46 billion deficit through March of this year is essentially half that.

What shows in the statistics is a series of large swings with trade partners, imports (primarily) and U.S. airports (largely).

I have been analyzing export-import trade data for a quarter century, so trust me when I tell you that swings like this are not normal.

Most of these big swings are the pendulum swinging back from big increases to something approaching a more predictable flow of goods.

There’s one glaring exception.

Imports in the computer category, which finished last year as the nation’s No. 1 import for the first time ever, are still roaring – computer hardware largely to quench the thirst of companies racing to build data centers with the boom in artificial intelligence investments.

Computer imports increased to $88.27 billion through March, a 106.64% gain from the first quarter last year. This, at a time when overall imports plunged $131.72 billion, equal to 13.89%.

Those imports largely continue to be stamped Made in Taiwan, which saw its trade increase 79.09% to $81.96 billion. Taiwan now ranks fourth among U.S. trade partners, up from No. 9 at this time last year.

It trails Mexico, Canada and China, respectively. China saw its trade continue its downward spiral to $88.25 billion. That is a $46.23 billion decrease from the same time period last year, which is equal to 34.38%.

Almost as big as the $46.23 billion decline in U.S. trade with China, still the primary nemesis of President Trump, whose trade war with what was then the nation’s top trade partner began in 2018, is the $44.44 billion decline in trade with Ireland.

The decline in trade with Ireland caused it to fall from the nation’s fifth-ranked trade partner to No. 19. That decline is largely due to the pharmaceutical industry, more specifically the reversal of the mad rush for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Wegovy, Ozempic and Mounjaro.

The No. 5-ranked import through the first quarter of 2025, this year the category that includes insulin, hormones and steroids – and GLP-1 drugs – plummeted to No. 258. GLP-1 drugs, while not hormones, mimic them in the body. The decline was from $34.49 billion to $397.70 million, a decrease of 98.85%.

The No. 1-ranked import in the first quarter of 2025 also experienced a precipitous decline. Articles with precious metals – mainly gold – fell 98.02%, from $72.28 billion to $1.43 billion. That was due to a completely different frenzy.

It was financial markets reacting to Trump’s trade war with the world by seeking safety in gold, largely. The category fell from No. 1 to No. 99.

These big declines had an impact on not only the ranking of the nation’s trade partners – Switzerland, a hub for global gold processing, banking and distribution, fell from a No. 4 rank to No. 10, its trade down from $70.38 billon to $36.87 billion – but also U.S. airports that handled the gold, silver and GLP-1 drugs.

JFK International Airport, the top-ranked U.S. port in the first quarter of last year and this year, nevertheless experienced a $37.89 billion decline in overall trade but a much larger $77.81 billion decrease in imports. Exports actually increased, largely gold, buffeting the loss.

At Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport, which finished 2025 as the nation’s top-ranked U.S. airport, seaport or border crossing, trade fell $27.92 billion. It ranked third in the first quarter, behind Port Laredo. Exports rose slightly while imports fell $31.77 billion – largely tied to the decline in GLP-1 drugs and other pharmaceuticals.

While JFK remains the No. 1 port through the first quarter, Port Laredo, which finished as the nation’s No. 1 overall port in 2023 and 2024, is back on top in the month of March. Its trade, predominantly with Mexico, increased 6.02% and it moved ahead of O’Hare into second place.

While not as severe as O’Hare and JFK, the Port of Los Angeles saw a $16.14 billion decline in trade in the first quarter, when compared to the first quarter of 2025. Long the nation’s dominant port but now ranked No. 4 by value, it has long been the No. 1 port of call for imports from China.

In the end, there were basically just two primary drivers for the steep decline in the U.S. deficit – free-falling GLP-1 and gold imports - with an assist in continued declines in a variety of Chinese imports.

That showed up in changes in U.S. deficits with individual countries, most prominently:

The United States went from having a deficit of $54.27 billion with Switzerland to a surplus of $15.26 billion, a swing of $69.53 billion.

The U.S. deficit with Ireland went from $55.71 billion to $8.13 billion, a reduction of $47.58 billion.

The U.S. deficit with China went from $70.84 billion to $33.49 billion, a difference of $37.34 billion.

What’s leading the charge for U.S. exports, helping trim that deficit? Gold.

All that gold that flowed from Switzerland to the United States is now headed back to either Switzerland or the United Kingdom and the financial capital, London. The U.S. surplus grew its surplus with the United Kingdom from $5.12 billion to $20.32 billion, largely gold.

The two nations accounted for better than 70% of U.S. gold exports in the first quarter, which increased 288.56% from the previous first quarter and 813.42% from just four years ago.

Gold, ranked as the 10th most valuable U.S. export in the first quarter of last year, ranked No. 1 this year. Silver, which ranked No. 245 last year, now ranks No. 11, the value of its imports increasing 4,333%.

The first quarter of 2026 is, in many ways, a tale of gravity reasserting itself. The gold rush faded. The GLP-1 frenzy cooled. China's long decline continued. But beneath the surface, one force is still accelerating — the insatiable appetite for computing power feeding America's AI boom. If the history of trade teaches anything, it's that the pendulum always swings. The question now is whether the AI-driven surge in computer imports is a temporary spike or the opening chapter of a new era in American trade.