MLB Best Home Run Bets

Jackson Chourio (Milwaukee - OF)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+410) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jackson Chourio has hit six home runs in 32 games and 151 plate appearances this year. The 22-year-old outfielder has drastically improved his batted-ball quality this year, setting career highs in exit velocity (92.2 mph), launch angle (12.1 degrees), barrel rate (15.0%), hard-hit rate (47.0%) and fly-ball rate (41.0%).

Chourio has hit five of his six home runs in 115 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season. Circling back to his batted-ball quality, he’s not merely having a career year by his standards. Instead, Chourio is also posting impressive batted-ball data relative to other MLB hitters. Among 256 qualified batters in 2026, Chourio is 16th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.9%), 24th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (15.0%), 46th in hard-hit rate (47.5%), 19th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.9 mph), tied for 40th in maximum exit velocity (113.3 mph) and tied for 130th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (34.0%).

Chourio has a fantastic matchup for hitting a home run tonight. Among tonight’s projected probable starting pitchers, Andrew Painter’s 1.71 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) are the fourth-most. The rookie righty has coughed up 11 homers in 11 starts this year, surrendering at least one in seven of his last nine games after allowing zero home runs through his first three starts. Painter has coughed up precisely two homers in each of his two previous starts. Chourio should continue Painter’s home run woes and reach the seats tonight.

Bryce Eldridge (San Francisco Giants - 1B)

Over 0.5 Home Runs (+551) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Bryce Eldridge didn’t deliver a home run when he was featured for his home run bet last Friday, but he’s on fire and can hit one tonight. The 21-year-old slugger has hit four homers in 28 games and 109 plate appearances this year, popping one in each of his last two games.

Eldridge has hit three of his four homers this year against righties in 87 plate appearances and three in 49 plate appearances at home. He has immense raw power.

Among 370 hitters with at least 50 batted-ball events in 2026, Eldridge is tied for 118th in barrels per plate appearance rate (6.4%), tied for 115th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (9.9%), seventh in hard-hit rate (56.3%), tied for 65th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.2 mph), tied for 45th in maximum exit velocity (113.4 mph), tied for 173rd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (33.8%) and tied for the 109th-steepest launch angle (16.3 degrees). It’s not a perfect batted-ball profile, but Eldridge hits the ball hard and does so frequently.

Eldridge’s matchup doesn’t immediately stand out as a plus. Ben Brown has allowed only one home run in 12 relief appearances and six starts this year, totaling 57 innings. However, Brown has permitted 13 homers at 1.56 HR/9 to 334 left-handed batters faced since last year.

The relievers for the Cubs have also yielded 1.26 HR/9 this year, the sixth-highest home run rate for a bullpen in 2026. Eldridge can give the home crowd something to cheer about with a home run against Brown, but he also has a backdoor path to cashing his home run bet against Chicago’s bullpen if he doesn’t take their starter deep.