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Forbes - Business

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‘UFO Files’—The Most Popular Alien Theories, Explained
Dani Di Placido · 2026-05-23 · via Forbes - Business

Americans have long been fascinated by UFOs and aliens, sparking the release of the 'UFO Files'

Bettmann Archive

Another batch of “UFO Files” have been dropped by the Pentagon, featuring previously classified documents, audio and footage of strange objects in the sky.

The new release comes two weeks after the first batch of UFO Files was received with a surprising amount of disinterest on social media.

The Pentagon's focus on alleged UFO sightings follows an executive order from President Donald Trump, who promised greater transparency on the phenomenon, with more files to come.

Online commentators seem fairly underwhelmed, many reacting to the UFO Files with memes and mockery.

Amusingly, Trump has struggled to hide his own disinterest when discussing the subject, stating, "I know you people—you're really into that. I don't know if I am.”

UFO enthusiasts seem intrigued by a handful of the Pentagon’s latest videos, but some have expressed disappointment, noting a lack of hard evidence in the UFO Files.

The release of the UFO Files highlights how the phenomenon has expanded far beyond the realm of fringe conspiracy theorists.

What Is The Origin Of The UFO Phenomenon?

History contains accounts of strange objects and lights in the sky, but the modern conception of UFOs originated in America, a couple of years after WWII ended.

The classic “flying saucer” archetype (still seen in pop culture depictions today) was popularized in 1947, after an alleged UFO sighting was reported by a civilian pilot named Kenneth Arnold.

Arnold’s sighting was followed by the Roswell incident a few weeks later, in which debris from a reported weather balloon crash sparked speculation that a UFO had been discovered.

The Roswell incident is still a central pillar of UFO mythology, and the story has inspired many pop culture depictions—rumors of crashed spaceships and otherworldly pilots are still flying around today.

UFOs, once an American oddity, have expanded into an international phenomenon—there’s no shortage of alleged sightings, abductions and alien encounters across the world (although, the U.S. still leads the way).

Most Americans believe aliens exist, according to polling—half think that they have visited Earth.

A sprawling web of alien mythology has been integrated into American folklore (there’s even room for Bigfoot) with theories ranging from mundane explanations to absurd conspiracies.

Here are some of the most popular theories behind the UFO phenomenon.

UFO Skeptics Have Plenty Of Theories

Let’s start with the skeptics—for as long as the UFO phenomenon has existed, non-believers have proposed alternate, earthly explanations.

UFO sightings are commonly attributed to unfamiliar objects in the sky, misinterpreted by witnesses—satellites, balloons, small meteors, airplanes and drones can appear otherworldly, under the right conditions.

These days, the sky is filled with more man-made objects than ever before, and a good chunk of UFO sightings can be explained by misidentification.

A 2024 Pentagon report attributed the spike in UFO-sightings to experimental technologies in space, rocket and air systems, "including stealth technologies and the proliferation of drone platforms."

Footage of alleged UFOs is often dismissed as weak evidence, subject to distortive effects and optical illusions captured by recording devices.

Skeptics also offer psychological explanations, noting that many eyewitness accounts contain tropes from popular sci-fi stories, conforming to cultural expectations of alien encounters.

Hallucinations, vivid dreams, moral panics and hoaxes are commonly suggested as counterarguments to alleged extraterrestrial encounters.

Carl Sagan, the legendary astronomer, expressed interest in the possibility of distant alien life, but remained skeptical, stressing that "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”

Sagan pointed out that the high volume of UFO sightings in the U.S. suggested frequent visits to Earth from extraterrestrials, which he viewed as highly implausible.

Sagan suggested that the UFO phenomenon might be psychologically connected to the decline of religion, noting similarities between angelic visits and alien encounters.

Funnily enough, some believers voice similar thoughts, but come to the opposite conclusion.

UFO Believers Have Many Theories

During the early years of the UFO phenomenon, the common assumption was that flying saucers were piloted by aliens, flesh-and-blood beings who sometimes crash their vehicle, like any regular driver.

UFO-enthusiasts have mixed theories as to why aliens seemingly choose to prioritize our planet. Some reckon that humans are subject to ongoing research, tests relating to morality and intelligence, or an incoming invasion.

Others believe that extraterrestrials are imparting divine wisdom, or are simply torturing us, like a child pulling the legs off an insect.

Some reckon that it’s all about control, proposing that humans are secretly enslaved, that our bodily or planetary resources are being extracted without our knowledge or consent.

A well-known conspiracy theory (also seen in The X-Files) attests that aliens are in communication with the U.S. government, providing knowledge and advanced weaponry, or engaged in secret wars with the military.

However, many UFO-enthusiasts agree with Carl Sagan’s point about the implausibility of frequent visits, embracing alternative possibilities.

Some have turned away from the sky—the internet has popularized a theory that UFOs are hidden in the ocean, concealing their existence by submerging their crafts deep below the water.

Others think that UFOs are probably unmanned drones, concluding that it makes little sense for an alien pilot to fly to our planet the old-fashioned way.

Recently, believers have moved away from physical explanations entirely, theorizing that aliens might be interdimensional beings, spiritual entities or modern encounters with angels and demons.

Vice President JD Vance is a proponent of this theory—on a recent podcast appearance, Vance stated his belief that extraterrestrials are demons in disguise.

There is, however, a third way—between skepticism and UFO belief, there is plenty of room for theorizing.

Where Are All The Aliens?

The idea that extraterrestrial life exists outside of Earth is not implausible—it’s a scientifically valid theory.

After all, there are plenty of habitable planets out there.

For those that believe in alien life, but aren’t convinced by UFO sightings, there’s a big, unanswered question—where are all the aliens?

Astronomers continue to scan the sky, but there are still no signs of intelligent life. This great mystery is known as the Fermi paradox.

Several theories have been proposed to explain our sad, empty universe—some believe that it’s not them, it’s us. Maybe intelligent aliens do not want to communicate with us, and conceal their existence.

This theory is often tied to environmentalism and pacifism, proponents reckoning that we Earthlings need to clean up our act (and our planet), before extraterrestrials come knocking.

Others have darker thoughts, speculating that extraterrestrial life could be inherently colonial and destructive, that we’re lucky to remain unseen by whatever is out there.

Some reckon that extraterrestrial life might be relatively common, but civilization is not—interstellar travel might be physically impossible.

The Great Filter theory proposes that organized intelligent life will inevitably hit a wall, unable to bypass “filters” such as inequality, nuclear war, environmental destruction, energy limitations and weaknesses brought on by technological advancement.

It could be the case that the universe is too big to traverse.

Life might be bound to whatever solar system spawned it—a hopeful, Star Trek-esque future might prove impossible.

Barack Obama Believes In Aliens

Former president Barack Obama has clearly considered the possibilities, going viral after expressing his belief in aliens during a podcast appearance.

"They're real, but I haven't seen them, and they’re not being kept in Area 51," Obama told podcaster Brian Tyler Cohen, sparking speculation online.

Later, Obama clarified his thinking on Instagram, writing:

"Statistically, the universe is so vast that the odds are good there's life out there. But the distances between solar systems are so great that the chances we've been visited by aliens is low, and I saw no evidence during my presidency that extraterrestrials have made contact with us. Really!"

Much of the footage released in the UFO Files is intriguing, but it should be noted that the Pentagon previously stated it has no evidence to suggest that any of the unknown flying objects caught on video, or described by eyewitnesses, are of extraterrestrial origin.

A statement from the defense department said the public “can ultimately make up their own minds about the information contained in these files.”

Whatever you think of the UFO Files, the point is to draw your own conclusion, based on the available evidence—or lack thereof.

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