Gold and silver futures fell Thursday morning after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but indicated rate hikes could come this year, though some analysts have said the United States and Iran’s peace agreement has offered metals some support.
Gold and silver futures fell Thursday. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)
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Gold futures are down about 2.5% Thursday morning, reaching a price of $4,280.10.
Silver futures fell further, down about 5% to a price of $67.22.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday made its first decision on interest rates under President Donald Trump-appointed chair Kevin Warsh, as the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to hold rates between 3.5% and 3.75%.
Nine of the panel’s 18 officials favored at least one interest rate hike this year—a policy move that typically puts downward pressure on the prices of precious metals.
Ole S. Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said Thursday gold fell following a “surprisingly hawkish FOMC meeting” that indicated rate hikes could come this year.
Hansen noted metals rebounded overnight before falling again Thursday morning, attributing the bump to Trump signing a peace agreement with Iran and noting the market’s “current struggle” is balancing short-term pressures with “longer-term structural support for gold.”
Following its Wednesday meeting, the Federal Reserve said the economy is “expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty,” pointing to the war in Iran. The Fed, in announcing the unanimous decision to hold interest rates steady, cited strong productivity and job growth, as well as minor changes in the unemployment rate. “Inflation remains elevated relative to the committee’s 2% goal,” the Fed’s note says, citing supply constraints and price surges in the energy sector.
Should the Fed raise interest rates later this year, gold and silver prices will probably decline, analysts say. “In our world interest rates are like gravity,” Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, told CNBC. “When interest rates rise, gravity increases and all assets are pulled down, including precious metals.” Even the prospect of higher interest rates has held metals prices down in recent weeks. Analysts at Germany’s Commerzbank said earlier this month as long as “expectations of interest rate hikes prevail,” gold prices are likely to stay down.
Warsh told the Senate Banking Committee in April that Trump did not “demand” he cut interest rates, and he said he would not agree to Trump demanding any particular interest rate. Trump, who long advocated for previous Fed chair Jerome Powell to cut rates, said last week Warsh should “do whatever he wants” but said there’s “no reason to raise interest rates.”
After a historic rally that carried gold prices to $5,600 and silver to $120 in January, prices came crashing down after Trump nominated Warsh as Fed chair, as he was not considered likely to cut interest rates. Metals prices have generally declined throughout the war in Iran as gold and silver have traded inversely with oil, which has surged throughout the conflict. Gold and silver hit two-month lows last week amid expectations of future rate hikes and uncertainty over the war in Iran.
Fed Holds Interest Rates Unchanged In Kevin Warsh’s First Meeting—But Higher Rates Are Expected (Forbes)
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